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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed medicines including SPINRAZA (SMA), TRYNGOLZA (FCS), DAWNZERA (HAE), and WAINUA (ATTRv-PN). Revenue comes from independent product sales (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA in U.S.),... Read more

$75.75+17.1% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#156 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $71.18Target $88.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$98.61+30.2%23 analysts
$88.75our TP
$75.75price
$98.61mean
$47
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Val5.0Qual2.0Grw0.0Mom4.4Sent7.2Ins3.0Peer1.7Tech4.5Risk5.03.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-135.5
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA-31.9
Profit Mgn-40.4%
ROE-70.8%
Rev Growth-10.3%
Beta0.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV46%normal
Max Pain$55-27.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyBiogen
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on our collaborations with Biogen for the development and commercialization of SPINRAZA and QALSODY.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Two directors (B. Lynne Parshall and Joseph H. Wender) retiring at 2026 Annual Meeting; Peter N. Reikes appointed to Board March 9, 2026. Routine board transitions; no disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -10%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
2.4
Value Rank
3.5

Unprofitable operations — net margin -40.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.2
Cash-burning: FCF -16% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.17Resistance $77.76

Price Targets

$71
$89
A.Upside+17.2%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.75: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $71.18. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the IONS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.75 (+17.1% upside). Prior stop was $71.18. Stop-loss: $71.18.

What are the risks of investing in IONS?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is IONS overvalued or undervalued?

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -135.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONS?

29 analysts cover IONS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed...

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed medicines including SPINRAZA (SMA), TRYNGOLZA (FCS), DAWNZERA (HAE), and WAINUA (ATTRv-PN). Revenue comes from independent product sales (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA in U.S.), royalties, and partner milestones from Biogen (SPINRAZA, QALSODY) and AstraZeneca (WAINUA). The company has a deep late-stage RNA pipeline.

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