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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.84: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage biotech with seven marketed RNA-targeted medicines treating rare and serious diseases, including SPINRAZA and QALSODY (Biogen-partnered) and independently commercialized TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA. Revenue was $944M in... Read more

$73.84+23.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#63 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-6.62%
Stop $69.03Target $91.24(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$101.38+37.3%24 analysts
$91.24our TP
$73.84price
$101.38mean
$47
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.84: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-118.7
Mkt Cap$12.2B
EV/EBITDA-37.9
Profit Mgn-30.9%
ROE-67.6%
Rev Growth87.0%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$68-8.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyBiogen
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on our collaborations with Biogen for the development and commercialization of SPINRAZA and QALSODY.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    B. Lynne Parshall and Lead Independent Director Joseph H. Wender both notified the Company on March 3, 2026 they will retire from the Board and not seek re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Peter N. Reikes announced as new director appointee. No disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
8.9
Cash-burning: FCF -76% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
4.2
Growth Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.17Resistance $79.19

Price Targets

$69
$91
A.Upside+23.6%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.84: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $69.03. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IONS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $91.24 (+23.6% upside). Prior stop was $69.03. Stop-loss: $69.03.

What are the risks of investing in IONS?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is IONS overvalued or undervalued?

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -118.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONS?

31 analysts cover IONS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage biotech with seven marketed RNA-targeted medicines...

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage biotech with seven marketed RNA-targeted medicines treating rare and serious diseases, including SPINRAZA and QALSODY (Biogen-partnered) and independently commercialized TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA. Revenue was $944M in 2025; key revenue streams include product sales and royalties from partnered drugs.

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