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Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.08: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 22.00; Below-average business quality.

Immunocore is a commercial-stage biotech with KIMMTRAK (tebentafusp), the first FDA-approved TCR bispecific therapy for metastatic uveal melanoma, approved in 39 countries and commercially launched in 30. Revenue is generated from KIMMTRAK sales through a hybrid... Read more

$28.08+98.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#39 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $26.82Target $55.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 11.2:1
Analyst target$63.86+127.4%13 analysts
$55.56our TP
$28.08price
$63.86mean
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.08: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 22.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: KIMMTRAK
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-19.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA-44.2
Profit Mgn-8.9%
ROE-9.6%
Rev Growth24.3%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C22.00bearish
IV88%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductKIMMTRAK
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate significant medicine revenues and to achieve commercial success in the near-term will initially depend on our ability to continue to commercialize KIMMTRAK.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David Berman, Head of Research & Development, resigned effective February 27, 2026 to pursue another opportunity. No disagreement cited. Company will not seek a direct replacement but will streamline and leverage its existing R&D structure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.4
Volatility
1.6
Debt Equity
4.7
Beta
8.0
High short interest justified: 21%Elevated put/call: 22.00High IV: 88%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Rule Of 40
5.5
Current Ratio
9.0
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 1.7%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 11.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.65Resistance $32.83

Price Targets

$27
$56
A.Upside+97.9%
A.R:R11.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IMCR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.08: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 22.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $26.82. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IMCR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.56 (+98.0% upside). Prior stop was $26.82. Stop-loss: $26.82.

What are the risks of investing in IMCR?

Concentration risk — Product: KIMMTRAK; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is IMCR overvalued or undervalued?

Immunocore Holdings plc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IMCR?

23 analysts cover IMCR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $64.

What does Immunocore Holdings plc do?Immunocore is a commercial-stage biotech with KIMMTRAK (tebentafusp), the first FDA-approved TCR bispecific therapy for...

Immunocore is a commercial-stage biotech with KIMMTRAK (tebentafusp), the first FDA-approved TCR bispecific therapy for metastatic uveal melanoma, approved in 39 countries and commercially launched in 30. Revenue is generated from KIMMTRAK sales through a hybrid in-house/contracted sales model in the US and Europe.

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