IDEAYA Biosciences carries a 52% analyst-implied upside and favorable near-term price momentum, but the underlying business quality is well below the minimum threshold — with free cash flow burning at 25% of revenue, a Piotroski score of 2 out of 9, and a pipeline concentrated in a single lead asset — making this a high-variance speculative setup where quality concerns outweigh the return potential for most investors.
Thesis pillars
- Single Asset Pipeline Concentration↑Improving
- Quality Below Minimum Floor↑Improving
- Cash Burning No Profitability→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.86: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined solid tumors, with nine clinical-stage candidates and no approved products. Lead asset darovasertib is in a Phase 2/3 trial for uveal melanoma; Servier paid $210... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.86: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
About IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
IDEAYA Biosciences holds a nine-candidate clinical pipeline anchored by darovasertib, a PKC inhibitor in a registration-enabling Phase 2/3 trial (OptimUM-02) in first-line metastatic uveal melanoma, with 437 patients enrolled by December 2025. The FDA granted darovasertib Breakthrough Therapy designation for neoadjuvant primary uveal melanoma in March 2025. In August 2025, Servier paid $210 million upfront for ex-U.S. commercialization rights, with up to $320 million in potential milestones and mid-teen to low-twenties royalties.
IDEAYA generates revenue from collaboration and license payments rather than product sales — the Servier upfront dominated 2025 cash inflows — with net losses of $113.7 million for 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $736.5 million at year-end. The pipeline spans four focus areas: darovasertib in combination with Pfizer's crizotinib for uveal melanoma; ADC/DDR inhibitor combinations (IDE849 partnered with Hengrui Pharma, IDE034, IDE161); MTAP pathway inhibitors including IDE397 in combination with Gilead's Trodelvy; and next-generation therapies IDE574 and IDE275. GSK notified the company in December 2025 of its intent to terminate two collaboration agreements covering IDE705 and IDE275, effective March 9, 2026. Manufacturing is outsourced to third-party contract manufacturers; the company held $1.05 billion in cash and marketable securities at December 31, 2025.
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IDEAYA's near-term regulatory path is disproportionately tied to a single readout. The 10-K discloses that topline progression-free survival data from OptimUM-02 were expected in the first quarter of 2026, and that this data "may enable an accelerated approval filing in the United States." The company has never submitted an NDA; if OptimUM-02 fails to meet its primary endpoint or the FDA requires additional studies, the only remaining approval path depends on overall survival data from the same 437 enrolled patients — a multi-year delay that could weigh on the company's ability to sustain its clinical programs without further dilutive financing.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Citizens Reiterates Market Outperform on IDEAYA Biosciences, Maintains $42 Price Target — benzinga Sep 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS IDEAYA Sets November R&D Day To Share New Pancreatic Cancer Research And Strategy — benzinga Sep 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS IDEAYA Reaches FDA Agreement On Late-Stage Trial Plan For Lung Cancer Drug, Plans Phase 3 Lung Cancer Study For IDE849 B — benzinga Aug 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS IDEAYA Biosciences Enters Clinical Collaboration With Roche's Genentech To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of IDE892, I — benzinga Aug 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on IDEAYA Biosciences, Lowers Price Target to $59 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-05T17:17:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHpipelinedarovasertib10-K Item 1: 'Darovasertib is an oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of protein kinase C (PKC) and our most advanced clinical program.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -74.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.86: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.07. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $45.37 (+13.8% upside). Prior stop was $37.07. Stop-loss: $37.07.
Concentration risk — Pipeline: darovasertib; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover IDYA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.
What does IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. do?IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined...
IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined solid tumors, with nine clinical-stage candidates and no approved products. Lead asset darovasertib is in a Phase 2/3 trial for uveal melanoma; Servier paid $210 million upfront in August 2025 for ex-U.S. rights, with up to $320 million in milestones.