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International Business Machines (IBM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions,... Read more

$225.00+11.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#12 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.26%
IncomeYield3.04%(5y avg 3.95%)Payout59.47%sustainable
Stop $213.66Target $250.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$278.18+23.6%20 analysts
$250.36our TP
$225.00price
$278.18mean
$195
$335

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — International Business Machines

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$209.0B
EV/EBITDA16.1
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE35.8%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.58
Dividend3.04%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$130-42.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $212.34Resistance $234.23

Price Targets

$214
$250
A.Upside+11.3%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $250.36 (+11.3%), stop $213.66 (−5.3%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the IBM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $250.36 (+11.3% upside). Target $250.36 (+11.3%), stop $213.66 (−5.3%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $213.66.

What are the risks of investing in IBM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is IBM overvalued or undervalued?

International Business Machines trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about IBM?

28 analysts cover IBM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $278.

What does International Business Machines do?IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to...

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions, consulting engagements, and infrastructure products and services, serving large enterprises and governments globally.

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