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International Business Machines (IBM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions,... Read more

$225.00+12.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#15 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.25%
IncomeYield3.03%(5y avg 3.95%)Payout59.47%sustainable
Stop $211.53Target $250.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$278.18+23.6%20 analysts
$250.36our TP
$225.00price
$278.18mean
$195
$335

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — International Business Machines

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$209.4B
EV/EBITDA16.1
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE35.8%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.58
Dividend3.03%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$130-42.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $212.34Resistance $256.20

Price Targets

$212
$250
A.Upside+11.3%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $225.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $250.36 (+11.3%), stop $211.53 (−6.4%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the IBM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $250.36 (+12.4% upside). Target $250.36 (+11.3%), stop $211.53 (−6.4%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $211.53.

What are the risks of investing in IBM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is IBM overvalued or undervalued?

International Business Machines trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about IBM?

28 analysts cover IBM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $278.

What does International Business Machines do?IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to...

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions, consulting engagements, and infrastructure products and services, serving large enterprises and governments globally.

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