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Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Hub Group is a supply chain solutions provider offering intermodal and logistics services across North America, generating approximately $4 billion in annual revenue. Revenue is earned from retail, consumer products, automotive, and manufacturing customers through contracted... Read more

$38.40+15.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#10 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.52%
IncomeYield1.30%Payout28.74%sustainable
Stop $35.67Target $44.31(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$42.20+9.9%15 analysts
$44.31our TP
$38.40price
$42.20mean
$29
$55

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.0Qual3.2Grw3.6Mom3.5Sent6.5Ins5.0Peer3.1Tech6.5Risk5.24.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Hub Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: single customer >10% of revenue
Concentration risk — Product: Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (57.0%)
Target reached (-1.0% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.0
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA8.3
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth-5.3%
Beta1.26
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$25-34.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersingle customer >10% of revenue
    10-K Item 1A: 'one customer accounted for more than 10% of our annual revenue in both segments... A reduction in or termination of our services by one or more of our largest customers could have a material adverse effect'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers accounted for approximately 44% of our total revenue in 2024'
  • HIGHProductIntermodal and Transportation Solutions57%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 57% of our revenue from our Intermodal and Transportation Solutions in 2024'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 3.01HIGH
    Nasdaq notified Hub Group on March 19, 2026 of noncompliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) due to failure to timely file its 2025 Form 10-K. No immediate effect on trading; Company has a cure period.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-24Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Hub Group entered a First Amendment to Credit Agreement on March 23, 2026, extending the deadline to deliver financial statements and waiving any Defaults directly resulting from the delayed 10-K filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.6
Value Rank
6.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.4
Operating Margin
1.7
Roe
2.1
Roa
2.1
Fcf Quality
4.4
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Earnings Growth
6.1
Declining revenue: -5%
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.47Resistance $45.21

Price Targets

$36
$44
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-03-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUBG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $35.67. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HUBG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.31 (+15.5% upside). Prior stop was $35.67. Stop-loss: $35.67.

What are the risks of investing in HUBG?

Concentration risk — Customer: single customer >10% of revenue; Concentration risk — Product: Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (57.0%); Target reached (-1.0% upside).

Is HUBG overvalued or undervalued?

Hub Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HUBG?

21 analysts cover HUBG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Hub Group, Inc. do?Hub Group is a supply chain solutions provider offering intermodal and logistics services across North America,...

Hub Group is a supply chain solutions provider offering intermodal and logistics services across North America, generating approximately $4 billion in annual revenue. Revenue is earned from retail, consumer products, automotive, and manufacturing customers through contracted carrier relationships, with intermodal accounting for 57% of 2024 revenue.

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