Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HTH stock price target?

Take-profit $37.85 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $36.35.

Q: What are the risks of investing in HTH?

Target reached (-11.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-20.9% YoY), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.09% of cap); Target reached (-11.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Q: Is HTH overvalued or undervalued?

Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about HTH?

11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates

Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based diversified financial holding company with banking (PlainsCapital Bank, $12.7B assets), broker-dealer (Hilltop Securities), and mortgage origination segments, with $15.8B total assets at Dec 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income on... Read more

$37.99-0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#3 of 4 Financial Conglomerates

Stop $36.35Target $37.85(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1

Analyst target$39.67+4.4%3 analysts

$37.85our TP

$37.99price

$39.67mean

$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.99: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-11.2% upside)

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-20.9% YoY), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.09% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3

P/E (Fwd)15.8

Mkt Cap$2.2B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn12.8%

ROE7.6%

Rev Growth-3.4%

Beta0.92

Dividend2.02%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

IV49%normal

Max Pain$25-34.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMGeographicgeographic concentration
10-K Item 1A: 'Our geographic concentration may magnify the adverse effects and consequences of any regional or local economic downturn'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
Second Amendment to Steve Thompson's Employment Agreement extended his term to Dec 31, 2028 (previously expired Dec 31, 2025). Jeremy Ford 2025 Annual Incentive Bonus disclosed. Routine compensatory arrangements.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.615%0.99

Quality3.415%0.51

Growth1.715%0.26

Momentum6.310%0.63

Sentiment5.510%0.55

Insider Activity3.010%0.30

Peer Rank3.110%0.31

Technical Setup4.55%0.23

Risk Profile5.95%0.30

Catalyst7.75%0.39

Overall (Σ contributions)4.45

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -3.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.7

Earnings Growth

1.7

Declining revenue: -3%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

1.3

Growth Rank

2.5

Quality Rank

3.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Roa

0.7

Piotroski F

2.2

Roe

2.5

Moat

5.0

Net Margin

6.4

Operating Margin

6.8

No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9

GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

53 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.44Resistance $38.62

Price Targets

$36

$38

A.Upside-0.4%

A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.2% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-20.9% YoY), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.09% of cap)

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HTH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.99: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.35. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.85 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $36.35. Stop-loss: $36.35.

What are the risks of investing in HTH?

Target reached (-11.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-20.9% YoY), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.09% of cap).

Is HTH overvalued or undervalued?

Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTH?

11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Hilltop Holdings Inc. do?Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based diversified financial holding company with banking (PlainsCapital Bank, $12.7B...