Hilltop Holdings trades with roughly 0.8% headroom to its near-term price target, carries a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 with no identifiable competitive moat, is experiencing revenue contraction of approximately 3%, and has 82% of its business concentrated in three states — the risk/reward of approximately 0.2-to-1 against you makes the setup difficult to justify even given a strong recent earnings surprise pattern.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Quality No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Cliff Risk→Stable
- Declining Revenue No Growth Case→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company with three segments: banking (PlainsCapital Bank, $12.7 billion in assets at year-end 2025), broker-dealer (Hilltop Securities), and mortgage origination (PrimeLending). Revenue comes from Texas commercial and consumer... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Hilltop Holdings Inc.
About Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Hilltop Holdings reported $15.8 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, with $10.9 billion in deposits and $9.2 billion in total loans across its three segments. PlainsCapital Bank held $12.7 billion in assets, drawing deposits primarily from Texas residents and businesses. PrimeLending originated $8.9 billion in closed mortgage loan volume in 2025 — 85.9% purchase-related — from over 170 locations in 46 states.
Hilltop Holdings earns net interest income from a loan book in which non-owner-occupied commercial real estate represents 23.9% of loans held for investment, 1-4 family residential 21.0%, owner-occupied CRE 17.3%, and commercial and industrial loans 14.3%. The broker-dealer segment — Hilltop Securities — generated 82% of segment net revenues through Texas, New York, and California locations in 2025, operating across four product lines: public finance advisory, structured finance, fixed income services, and wealth management including clearing and securities lending. Hilltop Securities provided clearing services to 93 financial organizations at year-end 2025. PrimeLending funds originations through warehouse lines extended by the bank, sells substantially all loans to secondary market investors, and concentrates 44% of 2025 origination volume in Texas, California, and South Carolina collectively.
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The banking segment conducts substantially all operations in Texas, linking credit quality and deposit stability directly to Texas economic conditions. The 10-K identifies commercial real estate market conditions as a discrete risk for the banking segment — significant given that non-owner-occupied CRE and owner-occupied CRE together account for more than 41% of loans held for investment, with construction and land development adding another 10.1%. If Texas real estate values weaken, both the CRE and construction portfolios could come under simultaneous pressure, magnifying the effect of any regional economic downturn.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
From Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Full Transcript: Hilltop Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hilltop Hldgs Q1 EPS $0.64 Beats $0.52 Estimate, Sales $112.097M Beat $110.151M Estimate. — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For April 23, 2026 — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With Implied Moves Over 20% Post-Earnings — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicTexas banking operations10-K Item 1: 'The Bank has a presence in the large metropolitan markets in Texas and conducts substantially all of its banking operations in Texas'
- HIGHGeographicTexas, New York and California82%10-K Item 1: '82% of the broker-dealer segment's net revenues during 2025 generated through locations in Texas, New York and California'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas, California and South Carolina44%10-K Item 1: '44% concentrated in Texas, California and South Carolina, collectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Dana Bober (former Ernst & Young Partner, Americas Financial Accounting Advisory Services) and Stephen Haworth (Vice Chairman of Flexpoint Ford LLC) as independent directors on April 23, 2026. Bober also appointed to Audit Committee. No officer departures cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.60: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $36.54. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.14 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $36.54. Stop-loss: $36.54.
Single-region cliff: 82% exposure to Texas, New York and California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas banking operations; Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas, New York and California (82.0%).
Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.
What does Hilltop Holdings Inc. do?Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company with three segments: banking (PlainsCapital Bank, $12.7...
Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company with three segments: banking (PlainsCapital Bank, $12.7 billion in assets at year-end 2025), broker-dealer (Hilltop Securities), and mortgage origination (PrimeLending). Revenue comes from Texas commercial and consumer banking, fixed-income and public finance brokerage across 16 states, and $8.9 billion in annual mortgage originations through 170+ retail locations nationwide.