Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HTH stock price target?

Take-profit $37.68 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $35.35.

Q: What are the risks of investing in HTH?

Target reached (-8.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Target reached (-8.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Q: Is HTH overvalued or undervalued?

Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about HTH?

11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.

Q: What does Hilltop Holdings Inc. do?

Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and mortgage origination (PrimeLending) segments. Revenue derives from net interest income on Texas-concentrated commercial and real estate loans, broker-dealer fees, and mortgage origination gains. The Bank conducts substantially all operations in Texas while PrimeLending originates in all 50 states.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 7 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 9:51 AM ET)

Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.99: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and mortgage origination (PrimeLending) segments. Revenue derives from net interest income on Texas-concentrated commercial and real estate loans, broker-dealer fees,... Read more

$36.99+1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#3 of 4 Financial Conglomerates

QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield2.08%(5y avg 1.96%)Payout28.14%sustainable

Stop $35.35Target $37.68(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1

Analyst target$39.67+7.2%3 analysts

$37.68our TP

$36.99price

$39.67mean

$40

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Hilltop Holdings Inc.

Latest news

Full Transcript: Hilltop Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 27, 2026 neutral
Hilltop Hldgs Q1 EPS $0.64 Beats $0.52 Estimate, Sales $112.097M Beat $110.151M Estimate. — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 positive
Earnings Scheduled For April 23, 2026 — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 neutral
Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With Implied Moves Over 20% Post-Earnings — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-8.8% upside)

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.9

P/E (Fwd)15.3

Mkt Cap$2.1B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn12.8%

ROE7.6%

Rev Growth-3.4%

Beta0.89

Dividend2.08%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

IV37%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.015%1.05

Quality3.215%0.48

Growth1.715%0.26

Momentum2.810%0.28

Sentiment5.410%0.54

Insider Activity3.410%0.34

Peer Rank3.510%0.35

Technical Setup6.85%0.34

Risk Profile6.75%0.34

Catalyst7.35%0.36

Overall (Σ contributions)4.33

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -3.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.7

Earnings Growth

1.7

Declining revenue: -3%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

1.5

Rsi

5.5

Ma Position

6.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Roa

0.7

Piotroski F

2.2

Roe

2.5

Moat

3.6

Net Margin

6.4

Operating Margin

6.8

No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

2.5

Value Rank

2.9

Quality Rank

3.8

GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

45 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.03Resistance $38.45

Price Targets

$35

$38

A.Upside+1.9%

A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HTH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.99: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.35. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.68 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $35.35. Stop-loss: $35.35.

What are the risks of investing in HTH?

Target reached (-8.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is HTH overvalued or undervalued?

Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTH?

11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Hilltop Holdings Inc. do?Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and...