Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.97: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and mortgage origination (PrimeLending) segments. Revenue derives from net interest income on Texas-concentrated commercial and real estate loans, broker-dealer fees,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.97: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Hilltop Holdings Inc.
About Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Hilltop Holdings reported $15.8 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, with $10.9 billion in deposits and $9.2 billion in total loans across its three segments. PlainsCapital Bank held $12.7 billion in assets, drawing deposits primarily from Texas residents and businesses. PrimeLending originated $8.9 billion in closed mortgage loan volume in 2025 — 85.9% purchase-related — from over 170 locations in 46 states.
Hilltop Holdings earns net interest income from a loan book in which non-owner-occupied commercial real estate represents 23.9% of loans held for investment, 1-4 family residential 21.0%, owner-occupied CRE 17.3%, and commercial and industrial loans 14.3%. The broker-dealer segment — Hilltop Securities — generated 82% of segment net revenues through Texas, New York, and California locations in 2025, operating across four product lines: public finance advisory, structured finance, fixed income services, and wealth management including clearing and securities lending. Hilltop Securities provided clearing services to 93 financial organizations at year-end 2025. PrimeLending funds originations through warehouse lines extended by the bank, sells substantially all loans to secondary market investors, and concentrates 44% of 2025 origination volume in Texas, California, and South Carolina collectively.
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The banking segment conducts substantially all operations in Texas, linking credit quality and deposit stability directly to Texas economic conditions. The 10-K identifies commercial real estate market conditions as a discrete risk for the banking segment — significant given that non-owner-occupied CRE and owner-occupied CRE together account for more than 41% of loans held for investment, with construction and land development adding another 10.1%. If Texas real estate values weaken, both the CRE and construction portfolios could come under simultaneous pressure, magnifying the effect of any regional economic downturn.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
From Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Full Transcript: Hilltop Hldgs Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hilltop Hldgs Q1 EPS $0.64 Beats $0.52 Estimate, Sales $112.097M Beat $110.151M Estimate. — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For April 23, 2026 — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With Implied Moves Over 20% Post-Earnings — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:27Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.97: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.93. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $37.98 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $35.93. Stop-loss: $35.93.
Target reached (-11.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Hilltop Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover HTH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.
What does Hilltop Holdings Inc. do?Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and...
Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial holding company operating banking ($12.7B assets), broker-dealer, and mortgage origination (PrimeLending) segments. Revenue derives from net interest income on Texas-concentrated commercial and real estate loans, broker-dealer fees, and mortgage origination gains. The Bank conducts substantially all operations in Texas while PrimeLending originates in all 50 states.