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Freedom Holding Corp. (FRHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $147.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Freedom Holding Corp. is a Nevada-based financial services holding company with primary operations in Kazakhstan, offering securities brokerage, banking, insurance, and ancillary services across Kazakhstan, Europe, Asia, and North America. Revenue grew to $2.05B in fiscal 2025,... Read more

$147.89+8.9% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#4 of 4 Financial Conglomerates
Stop $140.65Target $161.70(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $147.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: concentrated customers and products
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14760.0
P/E (Fwd)32.8
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn0.2%
ROE0.2%
Rev Growth-14.1%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV50%normal
Max Pain$80-45.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicKazakhstan
    10-K Item 1A: 'Kazakhstan's economy is vulnerable to internal political and social unrest.'
  • HIGHCustomerconcentrated customers and products
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenues are concentrated in certain customers and products, which may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -14.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -14%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Roe
0.1
Net Margin
0.1
Operating Margin
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
10.0
No competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Surprise Avg
5.7
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $145.00Resistance $165.00

Price Targets

$141
$162
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $147.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $140.65. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the FRHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $161.70 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $140.65. Stop-loss: $140.65.

What are the risks of investing in FRHC?

Concentration risk — Customer: concentrated customers and products; Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is FRHC overvalued or undervalued?

Freedom Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 14760.0 (forward 32.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does Freedom Holding Corp. do?Freedom Holding Corp. is a Nevada-based financial services holding company with primary operations in Kazakhstan,...

Freedom Holding Corp. is a Nevada-based financial services holding company with primary operations in Kazakhstan, offering securities brokerage, banking, insurance, and ancillary services across Kazakhstan, Europe, Asia, and North America. Revenue grew to $2.05B in fiscal 2025, with 683,000 retail brokerage accounts and 8,691 employees across 202 offices.

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