Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HOMB stock price target?

Take-profit $27.22 (+4.3% upside). Target $27.22 (+4.3%), stop $25.11 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.9:1.

Q: Is HOMB overvalued or undervalued?

Home BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about HOMB?

14 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

Q: What does Home BancShares, Inc. do?

Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Alabama, and New York City, with $22.9 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income and non-interest income on a diversified loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans represented 53.2% of gross loans and real estate loans overall totaled 74.1% of the loan portfolio.

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 7:01 AM ET)

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

$26.09+4.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#132 of 142 Banks - Regional

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield3.22%(5y avg 2.77%)Payout33.74%sustainable

Stop $25.11Target $27.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1

Analyst target$31.29+19.9%7 analysts

$27.22our TP

$26.09price

$31.29mean

$33

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.09, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Home BancShares, Inc.

Latest news

Micron To Rally More Than 61%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral on Home BancShares, Lowers Price Target to $30 — benzinga May 19, 2026 negative
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Home BancShares, Lowers Price Target to $30 — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 negative
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Home BancShares, Lowers Price Target to $33 — benzinga Apr 17, 2026 neutral
Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight on Home BancShares, Lowers Price Target to $32 — benzinga Apr 17, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0

Risks

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%)

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%)

Thin upside margin: 4.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7

P/E (Fwd)10.1

Mkt Cap$5.3B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn44.5%

ROE11.4%

Rev Growth2.4%

Beta0.69

Dividend3.22%

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral

IV33%normal

Max Pain$35+34.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans53%
10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans represented 53.2% and 57.6% of gross loans and 194.3% and 214.6% of total stockholders’ equity, respectively'
HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans74%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 74.1% of our total loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral'
MEDIUMregulatoryFederal Reserve Board
10-K Item 1A: 'As a registered bank holding company, we are primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board. Our bank subsidiary is also primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board and the Arkansas State Bank Department.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.815%1.02

Quality5.215%0.78

Growth2.915%0.43

Momentum2.110%0.21

Sentiment5.810%0.58

Insider Activity5.210%0.52

Peer Rank4.610%0.46

Technical Setup6.95%0.35

Risk Profile7.25%0.36

Catalyst6.05%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.01

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.5

Volume

1.5

Macd

3.0

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

2.7

Revenue Growth

3.1

GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

39 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.50Resistance $27.26

Price Targets

$25

$27

A.Upside+4.3%

A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-15 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HOMB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.09, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $27.22 (+4.3%), stop $25.11 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOMB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.22 (+4.3% upside). Target $27.22 (+4.3%), stop $25.11 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $25.11.

What are the risks of investing in HOMB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%); Thin upside margin: 4.3%.

Is HOMB overvalued or undervalued?

Home BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HOMB?

14 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Home BancShares, Inc. do?Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas,...

Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Alabama, and New York City, with $22.9 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income and non-interest income on a diversified loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans represented 53.2% of gross loans and real estate loans overall totaled 74.1% of the loan portfolio.