Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HOMB stock price target?

Take-profit $27.22 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $25.69.

Q: Is HOMB overvalued or undervalued?

Home BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about HOMB?

15 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.89 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (53.2%).

Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company with 22.9B total assets operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, South Alabama, and New York City. Revenue comes from net interest income and noninterest income; commercial real estate and... Read more

$26.89+1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#128 of 142 Banks - Regional

Stop $25.69Target $27.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1

Analyst target$31.29+16.3%7 analysts

$27.22our TP

$26.89price

$31.29mean

$33

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (53.2%)

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9

P/E (Fwd)10.2

Mkt Cap$5.4B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn44.5%

ROE11.4%

Rev Growth2.4%

Beta0.74

Dividend3.17%

Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish

IV68%elevated

Max Pain$23-16.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHTenantcommercial real estate loans53%
10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate and construction/land development loans, which comprised 53.2% of our total loan portfolio as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.715%1.00

Quality5.415%0.81

Growth2.915%0.43

Momentum3.610%0.36

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.710%0.47

Technical Setup7.25%0.36

Risk Profile5.85%0.29

Catalyst6.65%0.33

Overall (Σ contributions)5.20

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

2.7

Revenue Growth

3.1

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

1.5

Macd

3.0

Rsi

3.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

38 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.30Resistance $28.64

Price Targets

$26

$27

A.Upside+1.2%

A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.2% upside)

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-15 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HOMB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.89 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (53.2%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $25.69. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOMB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.22 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $25.69. Stop-loss: $25.69.

What are the risks of investing in HOMB?

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is HOMB overvalued or undervalued?

Home BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HOMB?

15 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Home BancShares, Inc. do?Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company with 22.9B total assets operating Centennial Bank with...