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HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporatiHold5.7·$48.71+0.85%
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Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 61% exposure to top ten states (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: top ten states (60.9%).

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company targeting U.S. educators, offering auto and property insurance, 403(b) retirement plans, life insurance, and supplemental group benefits through Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group... Read more

$48.71-0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#13 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield14.13%
IncomeYield2.98%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout35.43%sustainable
Stop $46.43Target $48.25(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$52.00+6.8%2 analysts
$48.25our TP
$48.71price
$52.00mean
$53

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 61% exposure to top ten states (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: top ten states (60.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Horace Mann Educators Corporati

About Horace Mann Educators Corporati

Horace Mann Educators Corporation collected $804.4 million in direct P&C premiums in 2025 across 326,040 auto and 163,711 property risks in force at December 31, 2025, operating through three reporting segments — Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group Benefits — and employing approximately 1,800 people across Springfield, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Madison, Wisconsin; Cherry Hill, New Jersey; and remote locations. The company serves approximately 14 million U.S. educator households and is licensed to write P&C business in 49 states and the District of Columbia, with insurance subsidiaries subject to state department of insurance regulation in each jurisdiction where they operate.

Horace Mann earns income from P&C underwriting, annuity and life spread income, and supplemental group benefits premiums. The P&C segment competes with national personal lines carriers including Allstate, Farmers, GEICO, Progressive, and State Farm, differentiating on educator-specific endorsements such as the Educator Advantage package. Individual products are distributed through exclusive agents and a centralized Coverage Consultation Center, while group benefits are distributed through third-party partners — with the 10-K disclosing that group benefits distribution is highly concentrated in one partner, creating dependency risk if that relationship is disrupted. The Life & Retirement segment earns spread income on 403(b) annuity products; the 10-K notes that during periods of rapidly rising interest rates, surrenders may increase as policyholders seek higher returns, while declining rates compress new-money yields and raise reserve requirements. The top five P&C states — California (15.4%), Texas (9.2%), North Carolina (7.6%), Minnesota (6.2%), and Georgia (4.9%) — together represent 43.3% of direct P&C premiums.

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The top ten states accounted for 60.9% of annual P&C premiums based on 2025 direct premiums earned, and the 10-K identifies California, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Louisiana as states considered more prone to catastrophe occurrences. Catastrophe losses totaled $61.7 million in 2025 and $94.9 million in 2024, with Hurricane Helene contributing $27.8 million in September 2024. The company retained $35.0 million per catastrophe event in 2025 under its excess of loss reinsurance program, with coverage provided by a panel including Lloyd's of London Syndicates (15.8%), Swiss Re (9.5%), and Transatlantic Reinsurance Company (8.1%) for 2026.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

From Horace Mann Educators Corporati's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Single-region cliff: 61% exposure to top ten states (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: top ten states (60.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.13
Dividend2.98%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicCalifornia15%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top five states and their portion of total direct insurance premiums were California, 15.4%'
  • HIGHGeographictop ten states61%
    10-K Item 1A: '60.9% of the total annual premiums for our Property & Casualty business were for policies issued in the ten largest states'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartysingle group benefits distribution partner
    10-K Item 1A: 'We also distribute group benefits under agreements with third-party distribution partners, with distribution highly concentrated in one partner.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Chief Accounting Officer Maureen Temchuk to begin temporary maternity leave on or about March 30, 2026, expected until approximately July 6, 2026. EVP and CFO Ryan Greenier named Interim Chief Accounting Officer for the duration of the leave.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
5.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.8
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.60Resistance $49.23

Price Targets

$46
$48
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 61% exposure to top ten states (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: top ten states (60.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.25 (-0.9%), stop $46.43 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.25 (-0.9% upside). Target $48.25 (-0.9%), stop $46.43 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $46.43.

What are the risks of investing in HMN?

Single-region cliff: 61% exposure to top ten states (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: top ten states (60.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HMN?

7 analysts cover HMN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Horace Mann Educators Corporati do?Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company targeting U.S. educators, offering auto and property...

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company targeting U.S. educators, offering auto and property insurance, 403(b) retirement plans, life insurance, and supplemental group benefits through Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group Benefits segments. The company earned $804.4 million in direct P&C premiums in 2025, distributing products via exclusive agents, call centers, and school district partnerships to approximately 14 million educator households across 49 states.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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