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Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life, retirement (403(b)), and supplemental/group benefits products across three segments. The company reaches ~14 million educator households through exclusive agents,... Read more

$42.00+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#15 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield14.93%
IncomeYield3.15%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout35.43%sustainable
Entry $42.63(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $40.51Target $45.81(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$52.00+23.8%2 analysts
$45.81our TP
$42.00price
$52.00mean
$53

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $45.72 has reached target $45.81. No upside to wait for. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Horace Mann Educators Corporati

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.13
Dividend3.15%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

IV131%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia15%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top five states and their portion of total direct insurance premiums were California, 15.4%; Texas, 9.2%; North Carolina, 7.6%; Minnesota, 6.2%; and Georgia, 4.9%'
  • HIGHcounterpartysingle group benefits distribution partner
    10-K Item 1A: 'distribution highly concentrated in one partner. If we are unable to retain our critical distribution partner or are unable to expand to additional distribution partners, our sales could be adversely impacted.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Maureen Temchuk, VP Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, commencing maternity leave on or about March 30, 2026 until approximately July 6, 2026. Ryan Greenier, EVP and CFO, will serve as Interim Chief Accounting Officer during her leave.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
3.7
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $43.65Resistance $46.75

Price Targets

$41
$43
$46
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $45.72 has reached target $45.81. No upside to wait for. Target $45.81 (+9.1%), stop $40.51 (−3.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.81 (+7.5% upside). Target $45.81 (+9.1%), stop $40.51 (−3.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $40.51.

What are the risks of investing in HMN?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HMN?

7 analysts cover HMN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Horace Mann Educators Corporati do?Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life,...

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life, retirement (403(b)), and supplemental/group benefits products across three segments. The company reaches ~14 million educator households through exclusive agents, digital, and worksite channels. California accounted for 15.4% and Texas 9.2% of direct P&C premiums in 2025.

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