Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.80
HAYW · Why this verdict
Why Hayward Holdings (HAYW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 85% of revenue tied to the North American segment, the business is highly exposed to domestic demand cycles with limited international revenue to buffer regional downturns — a concentration that amplifies both the upside in a strong domestic environment and the downside in a softer one. Bear case | North American segment revenue share declines below 70% as international operations grow to provide meaningful diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep North American market presence can represent a durable competitive position in a large addressable market; geographic concentration is only a structural disadvantage if domestic demand deteriorates, which remains a conditional rather than certain outcome. | ||
A death cross pattern combined with a 200-day moving average slope of -1.3% over 30 days and falling volume accumulation (declining OBV) describes a confirmed downtrend where sellers are in control — a condition that acts as a hard block on adding exposure at the current level. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average, OBV turns positive, and the MA slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 61 and an improving MACD suggest internal momentum is strengthening even as the primary trend remains negative — early signs that a recovery may be building from the current range despite the adverse longer-term trend signal. | ||
Free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income — a significant gap flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; when cash generated by the business is substantially below what is reported in income, the income statement may be overstating the sustainable level of profitability. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI ratio improves above 60% over the next 2 fiscal years as working capital or capital investment normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across multiple dimensions, indicating the low FCF/NI ratio may reflect timing effects rather than a structural earnings quality deficiency. | ||
Despite the primary downtrend, the setup has been characterized as a potential recovery — with MACD improving and RSI at 61 — suggesting the preconditions for a technical inflection may be forming even though the primary trend has not yet confirmed a reversal. V9 | Price breaks above $15.50 and sustains above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross is a hard technical block that historically overrides early-stage MACD improvement; a failed recovery attempt following a death cross can accelerate selling as technical participants exit on the second signal failure. | ||
With 85% of revenue tied to the North American segment, the business is highly exposed to domestic demand cycles with limited international revenue to buffer regional downturns — a concentration that amplifies both the upside in a strong domestic environment and the downside in a softer one.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- North American segment revenue share declines below 70% as international operations grow to provide meaningful diversification.
CounterDeep North American market presence can represent a durable competitive position in a large addressable market; geographic concentration is only a structural disadvantage if domestic demand deteriorates, which remains a conditional rather than certain outcome.
A death cross pattern combined with a 200-day moving average slope of -1.3% over 30 days and falling volume accumulation (declining OBV) describes a confirmed downtrend where sellers are in control — a condition that acts as a hard block on adding exposure at the current level.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average, OBV turns positive, and the MA slope turns flat or positive over the next 12 weeks.
CounterRSI at 61 and an improving MACD suggest internal momentum is strengthening even as the primary trend remains negative — early signs that a recovery may be building from the current range despite the adverse longer-term trend signal.
Free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income — a significant gap flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; when cash generated by the business is substantially below what is reported in income, the income statement may be overstating the sustainable level of profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI ratio improves above 60% over the next 2 fiscal years as working capital or capital investment normalizes.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across multiple dimensions, indicating the low FCF/NI ratio may reflect timing effects rather than a structural earnings quality deficiency.
Despite the primary downtrend, the setup has been characterized as a potential recovery — with MACD improving and RSI at 61 — suggesting the preconditions for a technical inflection may be forming even though the primary trend has not yet confirmed a reversal.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price breaks above $15.50 and sustains above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive.
CounterA death cross is a hard technical block that historically overrides early-stage MACD improvement; a failed recovery attempt following a death cross can accelerate selling as technical participants exit on the second signal failure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,160,448 (0.063% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.40
Upside
-5.8%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.0, and Insider at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A death cross pattern combined with a 200-day moving average slope of -1.3% over 30 days and falling volume accumulation (declining OBV) describes a confirmed downtrend where sellers are in control — a condition that acts as a hard block on adding exposure at the current level.
Trip ifPrice rises above $16.00 and holds above it for 3 consecutive weeks while OBV turns positive.
- P2Free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income — a significant gap flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; when cash generated by the business is substantially below what is reported in income, the income statement may be overstating the sustainable level of profitability.
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3With 85% of revenue tied to the North American segment, the business is highly exposed to domestic demand cycles with limited international revenue to buffer regional downturns — a concentration that amplifies both the upside in a strong domestic environment and the downside in a softer one.
Trip ifNorth American segment revenue share falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Despite the primary downtrend, the setup has been characterized as a potential recovery — with MACD improving and RSI at 61 — suggesting the preconditions for a technical inflection may be forming even though the primary trend has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Trip ifPrice falls below $13.00 on rising volume for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming the recovery attempt has failed.