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GROYGold Royalty Corp.Sell5.5·$3.36+5.00%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Royalty Corp shows strong 129% revenue growth and a highly favorable modeled asymmetry as it recovers from a death cross, but persistent cash burn, a still-confirmed downtrend, and the absence of a clear trading edge support the engine's mixed-signal, hold-existing-position recommendation.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Growth ProfileStable
  • Cash Burning FundamentalsStable
  • Death Cross Recovery SetupStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry in the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, or similar interests at varying... Read more

$3.36+32.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#31 of 42 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-14.01%
Stop $3.12Target $4.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$5.11+52.0%7 analysts
$4.44our TP
$3.36price
$5.11mean
$7

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03

Recent Developments — Gold Royalty Corp.

Generated 2026-09-03T14:22:18Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202663d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)32.0
Mkt Cap$741M
EV/EBITDA69.0
Profit Mgn6.7%
ROE0.2%
Rev Growth76.1%
Beta0.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C5.50bearish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Macd
3.7
Rsi
3.8
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.3
Support Resistance
2.4
Bollinger
3.4
Gap
5.0

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
3.6
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 32.0x
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.77Resistance $3.55

Price Targets

$3
$4
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GROY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $3.12. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GROY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.44 (+32.2% upside). Prior stop was $3.12. Stop-loss: $3.12.

What are the risks of investing in GROY?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Expensive valuation.

Is GROY overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Royalty Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GROY?

13 analysts cover GROY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Gold Royalty Corp. do?Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining...

Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry in the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, or similar interests at varying stages of the mine life cycle to build a portfolio offering near, medium, and longer-term returns for its investors. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: GAU (Galiano Gold Inc.) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation)
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