Skip to main content

GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company offering Galleri, an FDA PMA-pending multi-cancer early detection blood test that screens for many cancer types from a single draw. Galleri accounts for substantially all revenue; the NHS-Galleri Trial did not meet its primary... Read more

$51.57+13.6% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#24 of 25 Diagnostics & Research
Stop $48.24Target $58.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$67.71+31.3%7 analysts
$58.91our TP
$51.57price
$67.71mean
$82

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Galleri
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-5.9
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA-3.1
Profit Mgn-277.5%
ROE-16.1%
Rev Growth14.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV109%elevated
Max Pain$30-41.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductGalleri
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of Galleri accounted for a substantial majority of our revenue to date and we expect that such sales will continue to account for the substantial majority of our revenue for the foreseeable future'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.6
Days To Cover
2.3
Debt Equity
2.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
7.4
High short interest justified: 19%High IV: 109%Above max pain $30Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.2
Growth Rank
6.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -277.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
5.7
Cash-burning: FCF -74% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
3.4
Bollinger
4.0
Gap
5.0

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.4
Analyst Target
6.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.06Resistance $55.88

Price Targets

$48
$59
A.Upside+14.2%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $48.24. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.91 (+13.6% upside). Prior stop was $48.24. Stop-loss: $48.24.

What are the risks of investing in GRAL?

Concentration risk — Product: Galleri; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is GRAL overvalued or undervalued?

GRAIL, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRAL?

12 analysts cover GRAL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $68.

What does GRAIL, Inc. do?GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company offering Galleri, an FDA PMA-pending multi-cancer early detection blood...

GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company offering Galleri, an FDA PMA-pending multi-cancer early detection blood test that screens for many cancer types from a single draw. Galleri accounts for substantially all revenue; the NHS-Galleri Trial did not meet its primary endpoint of combined Stage 3 and 4 reduction, creating uncertainty for reimbursement and international expansion.

Related stocks: NEO (NeoGenomics, Inc.) · WGS (GeneDx Holdings Corp.) · QGEN (Qiagen N.V.) · BLLN (BillionToOne, Inc.) · SHC (Sotera Health Company)