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GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company selling Galleri, a blood test that screens for cancer signals from 50+ cancer types; filed a PMA with FDA in January 2026 and sold 475,000+ commercial tests through Dec 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from Galleri test sales;... Read more

$60.00+6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#25 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-4.21%
Stop $55.47Target $63.39(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$66.86+11.4%7 analysts
$63.39our TP
$60.00price
$66.86mean
$56
$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — GRAIL, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Galleri
Target reached (-2.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.5
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA-5.0
Profit Mgn-253.2%
ROE-16.1%
Rev Growth28.1%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductGalleri
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial majority of our revenue is generated from sales of Galleri and we are highly dependent on it for our success'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Days To Cover
0.8
Short Interest
1.8
Debt Equity
3.0
High short interest justified: 17%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -253.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
5.9
Cash-burning: FCF -69% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.2
Support Resistance
3.2
Gap
6.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
7.7
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.15Resistance $64.68

Price Targets

$55
$63
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $55.47. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.39 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $55.47. Stop-loss: $55.47.

What are the risks of investing in GRAL?

Concentration risk — Product: Galleri; Target reached (-2.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is GRAL overvalued or undervalued?

GRAIL, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRAL?

14 analysts cover GRAL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $67.

What does GRAIL, Inc. do?GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company selling Galleri, a blood test that screens for cancer signals from 50+...

GRAIL is a commercial-stage healthcare company selling Galleri, a blood test that screens for cancer signals from 50+ cancer types; filed a PMA with FDA in January 2026 and sold 475,000+ commercial tests through Dec 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from Galleri test sales; net loss was $408.4M in 2025 with $10.2B accumulated deficit largely from Illumina acquisition impairments.

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