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Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central... Read more

$69.33+3.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 9 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.86%
IncomeYield1.06%(5y avg 1.32%)Payout16.11%sustainable
Stop $64.48Target $71.97(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$78.80+13.7%10 analysts
$71.97our TP
$69.33price
$78.80mean
$89

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(7), earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Commercial Metals Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.58)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth21.5%
Beta1.49
Dividend1.06%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV50%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company ("CMC" or the "Company") announced that the Company's Board of Directors (the "Board") appointed Michael R. Dumais to serve as a Class II director of the Company, effective June 23, 2026. As such, Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Volume
3.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(7)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.21Resistance $73.44

Price Targets

$64
$72
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $64.48. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.97 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $64.48. Stop-loss: $64.48.

What are the risks of investing in CMC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is CMC overvalued or undervalued?

Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMC?

17 analysts cover CMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Commercial Metals Company do?Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build...

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, we offer products and technologies to meet the critical reinforcement needs of the global construction sector.

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