Commercial Metals trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.1x with 22% year-over-year earnings growth, but a mixed earnings track record with the most recent quarter a miss, a deeply unfavorable risk/reward geometry with only 1.7% of room to the near-term ceiling, and earnings results due in nine days create a cautious hold posture.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation With Growth↓Deteriorating
- Inconsistent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 16, 2026· older than 90 days
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.46 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern infrastructure and building projects. Through an extensive manufacturing network primarily located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.46 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 14, 2026
Recent Developments — Commercial Metals Company
Latest news
- NEWS Form 4 Commercial Metals Comp: Brian N. Halloran (SVP, N. America Steel Group) For: 9 October - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Form 4 Commercial Metals Comp: Jody K. Absher (SVP, Chief Legal Officer & Sec) For: 9 October - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Could Earnings Growth Forecasts Just Shift Commercial Metals (CMC) Investment Narrative? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Commercial Metals (CMC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Fortune — Fortune Oct 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Commercial Metals Company Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend on Common Stock, Payable on November 11, 2026 - marke — marketscreener.com Oct 13, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 14, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.46 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $61.81. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $67.86 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $61.81. Stop-loss: $61.81.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate CMC, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $78.
What does Commercial Metals Company do?CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern...
CMC provides early-stage construction solutions that support the site preparation through foundational phases of modern infrastructure and building projects. Through an extensive manufacturing network primarily located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, with strategic operations in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia, CMC serves infrastructure, non-residential, residential, industrial and energy markets.