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Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central... Read more

$68.81+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 9 Metal Fabrication
Stop $64.03Target $69.38(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$77.50+12.6%10 analysts
$69.38our TP
$68.81price
$77.50mean
$85

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth21.5%
Beta1.47
Dividend1.11%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company ("CMC" or the "Company") announced that the Company's Board of Directors (the "Board") appointed Michael R. Dumais to serve as a Class II director of the Company, effective June 23, 2026. As such, Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.9
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
6.3
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.98Resistance $70.80

Price Targets

$64
$69
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $64.03. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.38 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $64.03. Stop-loss: $64.03.

What are the risks of investing in CMC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is CMC overvalued or undervalued?

Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMC?

17 analysts cover CMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $78.

What does Commercial Metals Company do?Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build...

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, we offer products and technologies to meet the critical reinforcement needs of the global construction sector.

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