Commercial Metals trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.1x with 22% year-over-year earnings growth, but a mixed earnings track record with the most recent quarter a miss, a deeply unfavorable risk/reward geometry with only 1.7% of room to the near-term ceiling, and earnings results due in nine days create a cautious hold posture.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation With Growth→Stable
- Inconsistent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Wait for pullback to $63.16. At $65.29 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $63.16 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central... Read more
Wait for pullback to $63.16. At $65.29 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $63.16 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Commercial Metals Company
Latest news
- NEWS Commercial Metals Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.20 a Share, Payable July 15 to Holders of Record July 6 - marketscreene — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS CMC declares $0.20 quarterly dividend, 247th consecutive - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS CMC declares $0.20 quarterly dividend, 247th consecutive By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada positive
- NEWS Commercial Metals Co (CMC) Dividends & Stock Splits: Historical Payouts and Event Timeline - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Form 4 Commercial Metals Comp: Brian N. Halloran (SVP, N. America Steel Group) For: 9 October - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:27:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $63.16. At $65.29 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $63.16 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $68.81 (+5.4%), stop $59.30 (−10.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.81 (+5.4% upside). Target $68.81 (+5.4%), stop $59.30 (−10.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $59.30.
Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
18 analysts cover CMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $79.
What does Commercial Metals Company do?Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build...
Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, we offer products and technologies to meet the critical reinforcement needs of the global construction sector.