Skip to main content

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. At $5.53, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units, all located in Manhattan. Revenue comes from rents and Observatory ticket sales ($128.3M Observatory revenue in 2025); the Empire State Building alone... Read more

$5.53+4.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#6 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.06%
IncomeYield2.57%(5y avg 1.63%)Payout66.67%
Stop $5.17Target $5.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$6.61+19.5%5 analysts
$5.75our TP
$5.53price
$6.61mean
$7

Sell if holding. At $5.53, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.9
P/E (Fwd)90.7
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend2.57%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV41%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.30Resistance $5.79

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $5.53, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $5.17. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the ESRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.75 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $5.17. Stop-loss: $5.17.

What are the risks of investing in ESRT?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ESRT overvalued or undervalued?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.9 (forward 90.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESRT?

12 analysts cover ESRT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. do?Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743...

Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units, all located in Manhattan. Revenue comes from rents and Observatory ticket sales ($128.3M Observatory revenue in 2025); the Empire State Building alone accounts for ~32.3% of portfolio rental revenues, with three properties together generating ~55.6%.

Related stocks: BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.) · WPC (W. P. Carey Inc. REIT) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · SAFE (Safehold Inc. New) · GNL (Global Net Lease, Inc.)