Empire State Realty Trust has demonstrated a consistent recent pattern of outperforming earnings estimates and converts cash at an unusually high rate relative to reported earnings, but a confirmed price downtrend, a hard technical sell signal, and a single-market New York City footprint make this a low-conviction setup where patience is warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Momentum→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend↑Improving
- Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City.
Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates 10 Manhattan office properties (~7.9 million sq ft), ~0.8 million sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units — all in New York City — plus the Empire State Building Observatory. Revenue is generated through commercial and residential... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
About Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Empire State Realty Trust's Manhattan portfolio comprised 7.9 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million square feet of retail, and 743 residential units at December 31, 2025, with Manhattan office occupancy at 89.9% (excluding properties under redevelopment). Three properties generated 55.6% of rental revenues, the Empire State Building alone contributed 32.3%, and the company leased 1,009,009 square feet during 2025. Observatory revenue totaled $128.3 million in 2025, down from $136.4 million in 2024, as international visitation declined to approximately 2.3 million visitors from 2.6 million the prior year.
The company earns revenue through office and retail leases with separate real estate tax and operating expense escalations and fixed base rent increases. The five largest commercial tenants represented 17.4% of annualized commercial rent at year-end, with the largest single tenant occupying 0.4 million square feet and representing 5.5% of annualized commercial rent. Leases covering 5.1% of office and retail square footage expire in 2026 and 7.3% in 2027, creating near-term rollover exposure; the 10-K notes that average rents for in-place leases are generally below current market rates, suggesting mark-to-market upside on renewal. The capital structure included total debt of approximately $2.4 billion, with $629.0 million in mortgages and the balance in unsecured facilities, as of December 31, 2025. Three of the 10 Manhattan office properties are held under long-term ground leases expiring between 2050 and 2077, with no right to acquire the underlying fee interests.
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Empire State Realty Trust is 100% concentrated in New York City, where the 10-K acknowledges that pandemic-era hybrid work practices that have shifted employers away from fully in-person environments remain in place — a secular pressure bearing directly on office demand. The Observatory simultaneously faces declining international visitation with no assurance of recovery, per the filing. These two pressures affect the company's two largest revenue categories concurrently, and the 10-K notes that retail, which comprised 20.1% of annualized commercial rent, has faced reduced demand and increased bankruptcies from the continued shift to online shopping.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
From Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Empire State Realty Trust stock trades near weekly highs as technicals indicate short-term strength - Traders Union — Traders Union positive
- NEWS Empire State Realty Trust (NYSE:ESRT) Announces Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Empire State Realty (ESRT) Maintains 2026 Core FFO Forecast - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) Q1 2026: EPS $0.01, Revenue $19 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS ESRT Sees Q1 Revenue Reach $190.3 Million - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-28T11:53:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNew York City10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial portfolio is comprised of properties in New York City'
- MEDIUMTenantEmpire State Building32%10-K Item 1A: 'the Empire State Building individually accounting for approximately 32.3%'
- LOWTenantfive largest tenants17%10-K Item 1A: 'our five largest tenants together represented approximately 17.4% of our total commercial portfolio's annualized rent'
- LOWPropertyretail tenants20%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 20.1% of our commercial portfolio's annualized rent was comprised of retail tenants'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWItem 5.02 director/officer departure or appointment at Empire State Realty Trust, event date March 15, 2026. Body truncated in source; specific role and successor details unavailable from available text.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $4.69. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $4.52 reached (−10.1% from $5.03); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $4.69. Stop-loss: $4.69.
Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 251.5 (forward 83.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover ESRT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $5.
What does Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. do?Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates 10 Manhattan office properties (~7.9 million sq ft), ~0.8 million sq ft of...
Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates 10 Manhattan office properties (~7.9 million sq ft), ~0.8 million sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units — all in New York City — plus the Empire State Building Observatory. Revenue is generated through commercial and residential leases and Observatory ticket sales (~$128.3 million in 2025). Three properties accounted for 55.6% of rental revenues in 2025, with the Empire State Building alone contributing 32.3%.