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ESRTEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.Sell5.0·$5.35+1.52%
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Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. At $5.35, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units, all located in Manhattan. Revenue comes from rents and Observatory ticket sales ($128.3M Observatory revenue in 2025); the Empire State Building alone... Read more

$5.35+4.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#6 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.52%
IncomeYield2.66%(5y avg 1.65%)Payout66.67%
Stop $5.06Target $5.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$6.45+20.6%5 analysts
$5.61our TP
$5.35price
$6.45mean
$7

Sell if holding. At $5.35, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:11:39Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.1
P/E (Fwd)87.8
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend2.66%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.22Resistance $5.87

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $5.35, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.06. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the ESRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.61 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $5.06. Stop-loss: $5.06.

What are the risks of investing in ESRT?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ESRT overvalued or undervalued?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.1 (forward 87.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESRT?

12 analysts cover ESRT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. do?Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743...

Empire State Realty Trust is a NYC-focused REIT owning ~7.9M sq ft of office, ~0.8M sq ft of retail, and 743 residential units, all located in Manhattan. Revenue comes from rents and Observatory ticket sales ($128.3M Observatory revenue in 2025); the Empire State Building alone accounts for ~32.3% of portfolio rental revenues, with three properties together generating ~55.6%.

Related stocks: BNL (Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.) · AAT (American Assets Trust, Inc.) · SAFE (Safehold Inc. New) · GNL (Global Net Lease, Inc.)
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