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Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily,... Read more

$14.21+13.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 7 REIT - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-29.38%
IncomeYield4.91%(5y avg 2.99%)Payout44.81%
Stop $13.74Target $16.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$18.82+32.4%11 analysts
$16.37our TP
$14.21price
$18.82mean
$28

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Safehold Inc. New

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE4.7%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta1.89
Dividend4.91%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.1
Volume
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.16Resistance $16.25

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.74. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the SAFE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.37 (+13.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.74. Stop-loss: $13.74.

What are the risks of investing in SAFE?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SAFE overvalued or undervalued?

Safehold Inc. New trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAFE?

17 analysts cover SAFE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Safehold Inc. New do?Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value...

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use properties generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT), seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders. Safehold Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is based in New York, United States.

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