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Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $15.43. At $15.99 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $15.43 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily,... Read more

$15.99+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 7 REIT - Diversified
Entry $15.43(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $14.69Target $17.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$19.64+22.8%11 analysts
$17.08our TP
$15.99price
$19.64mean
$14
$28

Wait for pullback to $15.43. At $15.99 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $15.43 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta1.85
Dividend4.48%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.1
Revenue Growth
3.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
7.5
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.08Resistance $16.25

Price Targets

$15
$15
$17
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $15.43. At $15.99 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $15.43 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $17.08 (+6.8%), stop $14.69 (−8.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAFE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.08 (+9.3% upside). Target $17.08 (+6.8%), stop $14.69 (−8.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $14.69.

What are the risks of investing in SAFE?

Thin upside margin: 6.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Is SAFE overvalued or undervalued?

Safehold Inc. New trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SAFE?

17 analysts cover SAFE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Safehold Inc. New do?Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value...

Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use properties generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT), seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders. Safehold Inc. was incorporated in 2016 in Maryland, USA.

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