Genesis Energy trades at a steep valuation discount with exceptional cash-to-earnings conversion, but four consecutive earnings misses averaging roughly 140% below estimates and deeply bearish options positioning indicate that operational execution has broken down; the risk/reward is mathematically favorable at roughly 3.8-to-1 but contingent on a delivery turn that has yet to appear.
Thesis pillars
- Valuation Discount Opportunity→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%.
Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline transportation, marine transportation of petroleum products, and onshore terminaling, blending, and sulfur removal services. Following the... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Genesis Energy, L.P.
Latest news
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - StockS — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - stocks — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know - Tradin — TradingView neutral
- NEWS The eye gel that works in 5 minutes just launched at 2,000 Target stores - USA Today — USA Today neutral
- NEWS Genesis Energy Earnings: What To Look For From GEL - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:32:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicGulf of America and Gulf Coast region10-K Item 1: 'Our operations are primarily located in the Gulf of America and in the Gulf Coast region of the United States.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $13.61. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $15.30 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $13.61. Stop-loss: $13.61.
Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Genesis Energy, L.P. trades at a P/E of 72.5 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover GEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.
What does Genesis Energy, L.P. do?Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and...
Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline transportation, marine transportation of petroleum products, and onshore terminaling, blending, and sulfur removal services. Following the February 28, 2025 sale of its Alkali Business for $1.425 billion gross, revenue derives from fee-based pipeline transportation, Jones Act marine charters, and NaHS sales to industrial customers.