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Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Genesis Energy is a Delaware MLP providing offshore pipeline transportation, marine transportation, and onshore services for crude oil and petroleum products, primarily in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region. Revenue is generated from fees and margins on midstream... Read more

$17.08+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#25 of 41 Oil & Gas Midstream
Stop $16.06Target $17.48(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$19.67+15.1%3 analysts
$17.48our TP
$17.08price
$19.67mean
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.9
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn-27.0%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth10.5%
Beta0.73
Dividend4.19%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliercaustic soda
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on third parties for caustic soda for use in our sulfur removal process'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 1.01MEDIUM
    On March 4, 2026, Genesis entered into an Eighth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo providing a $900M senior secured revolving facility maturing March 4, 2031. Replaces the Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated July 19, 2024.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-09Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated July 19, 2024 terminated and replaced by new $900M revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo effective March 4, 2026. No default cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Net Margin
0.0
Roe
0.9
Roa
1.8
Gross Margin
3.1
Current Ratio
3.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
8.2
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.39Resistance $17.84

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.08: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $16.06. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.48 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $16.06. Stop-loss: $16.06.

What are the risks of investing in GEL?

Target reached (-2.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is GEL overvalued or undervalued?

Genesis Energy, L.P. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEL?

7 analysts cover GEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Genesis Energy, L.P. do?Genesis Energy is a Delaware MLP providing offshore pipeline transportation, marine transportation, and onshore...

Genesis Energy is a Delaware MLP providing offshore pipeline transportation, marine transportation, and onshore services for crude oil and petroleum products, primarily in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region. Revenue is generated from fees and margins on midstream transportation, sulfur removal services for refineries, and NaHS/caustic soda sales.

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