Genesis Energy trades at a steep valuation discount with exceptional cash-to-earnings conversion, but four consecutive earnings misses averaging roughly 140% below estimates and deeply bearish options positioning indicate that operational execution has broken down; the risk/reward is mathematically favorable at roughly 3.8-to-1 but contingent on a delivery turn that has yet to appear.
Thesis pillars
- Valuation Discount Opportunity→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline transportation, marine transportation of petroleum products, and onshore terminaling, blending, and sulfur removal services. Following the... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Genesis Energy, L.P.
Latest news
- NEWS Genesis Energy Q3 EPS $(0.05) Beats $(0.18) Estimate, Sales $449.251M Up From $414.001M YoY — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Graphano Energy Completes Ground Geophysical Exploration at Black Jack Discovery — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Genesis Energy (GEL.US) is scheduled to release its financial report before the market opens on November 5. - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Genesis Energy(GEL) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS GEL Q3'26 Earnings: EPS estimate is (0.18) USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicGulf of America and Gulf Coast region10-K Item 1: 'Our operations are primarily located in the Gulf of America and in the Gulf Coast region of the United States.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.26 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $12.38. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $15.30 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.38. Stop-loss: $12.38.
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Genesis Energy, L.P. trades at a P/E of 66.3 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts rate GEL, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $18.
What does Genesis Energy, L.P. do?Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and...
Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating in the Gulf of America and Gulf Coast region through offshore crude oil and natural gas pipeline transportation, marine transportation of petroleum products, and onshore terminaling, blending, and sulfur removal services. Following the February 28, 2025 sale of its Alkali Business for $1.425 billion gross, revenue derives from fee-based pipeline transportation, Jones Act marine charters, and NaHS sales to industrial customers.