Three consecutive earnings beats — including surprises of 50% and 109% above consensus — combined with strong price momentum and rising volume accumulation offer a compelling near-term setup, but below-average business quality and a 15% short float add meaningful volatility risk that demands disciplined position sizing.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Justified Premium Valuation↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Streak Consistency↑Improving
- Price Momentum Volume Accumulation↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $21.07, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing, serving enterprise customers across ecommerce, media, gaming, and financial services globally. Revenue is usage-based; the top 10 customers... Read more
Sell if holding. At $21.07, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Fastly, Inc.
About Fastly, Inc.
Fastly's top 10 customers generated 32% of revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025, slightly below the 33% recorded in 2024. One affiliated-customer group—business units of a single company—accounted for 10% of 2025 revenue, a share the filing notes could increase as changes in customer corporate structures contribute to further concentration. The company had an accumulated deficit of $1,114.5 million and reported a net loss of $121.7 million in 2025.
Fastly charges customers based on usage of its platform, primarily bandwidth consumed through CDN delivery, alongside subscription fees for security products including its web application firewall, bot management, API security, and DDoS protection. Enterprise customers—who account for most of the revenue base—do not typically hold long-term financial commitments; most contracts run one year or less, and customers may reduce or terminate usage with limited advance notice. The platform covers content delivery, edge computing via WebAssembly-based serverless compute, unified application security, and AI traffic management including semantic caching and edge data stores. The company serves industries including ecommerce, streaming media, gaming, financial services, and high tech, primarily through a direct sales model supplemented by a self-service tier for smaller customers.
Show full overview
Fastly's customer concentration risk is specific and named. TikTok was one of the company's largest customers in 2025, and the filing notes that a January 2026 ByteDance announcement—establishing TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC in compliance with a U.S. law requiring divestiture—may affect traffic levels on the platform in ways that cannot yet be quantified. Combined with the 10% concentration in a single affiliated-company group, any reduction in that customer's usage could weigh on revenue disproportionately given the platform's usage-based billing structure.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Fastly, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Fastly, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cloudflare, Fastly, Oracle, JFrog, and Okta shares plummet, what you need to know - TradingView — TradingView Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Fastly (NASDAQ:FSLY) Stock: Insider Artur Bergman Sells 37,039 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Is Fastly (FSLY) A Bargain As Its Jio Partnership Expands Its Reach? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is Retail Seeing 100% Jump In Fastly’s Stock By Month-End? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is Retail Seeing 100% Jump In Fastly’s Stock By Month-End? - stocktwits.com — stocktwits.com Aug 12, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers32%10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers generated an aggregate of 32% ... of our revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomeraffiliated customers of a single company10%10-K Item 1A: 'Affiliated customers that are business units of a single company generated an aggregate of 10% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $21.07, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.91. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $24.83 (+17.9% upside). Prior stop was $19.91. Stop-loss: $19.91.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
Fastly, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate FSLY, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $29.
What does Fastly, Inc. do?Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge...
Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing, serving enterprise customers across ecommerce, media, gaming, and financial services globally. Revenue is usage-based; the top 10 customers generated 32% of trailing-12-month revenue as of December 31, 2025, and the company posted a net loss of $121.7 million in 2025.