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Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily usage-based from enterprise customers; the top 10 customers generated 32% of 2025 revenue. TikTok was one of its largest... Read more

$16.47+28.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#58 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.39%
Stop $15.87Target $21.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$24.25+47.2%8 analysts
$21.10our TP
$16.47price
$24.25mean
$32

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Fastly, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)43.1
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA-49.4
Profit Mgn-15.8%
ROE-10.7%
Rev Growth19.8%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV93%elevated
Max Pain$5-69.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers generated an aggregate of 32% and 33% of our revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomersingle affiliated company10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Affiliated customers that are business units of a single company generated an aggregate of 10% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 4.01HIGH
    On March 4, 2026, Fastly dismissed Deloitte & Touche LLP as independent auditor and appointed KPMG LLP as replacement for fiscal year 2026. As of the filing date, KPMG had not yet formally accepted the engagement. No disagreement or adverse opinion reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
6.4
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.36Resistance $32.77

Price Targets

$16
$21
A.Upside+28.1%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $15.87. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.10 (+28.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.87. Stop-loss: $15.87.

What are the risks of investing in FSLY?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is FSLY overvalued or undervalued?

Fastly, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 43.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSLY?

17 analysts cover FSLY with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Fastly, Inc. do?Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for...

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily usage-based from enterprise customers; the top 10 customers generated 32% of 2025 revenue. TikTok was one of its largest customers in 2025.

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