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Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform providing CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, WAAP), and compute services at the internet edge, serving enterprises in media, ecommerce, gaming, and high-tech globally. Revenue is usage-based and subscription-driven; the company reported a net loss... Read more

$24.51+37.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#84 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $23.03Target $34.12(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$19.86-19.0%7 analysts
$34.12our TP
$24.51price
$19.86mean
$7
$34

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -8.7%), Material insider selling (56 sells, 0.98% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)71.5
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA-64.3
Profit Mgn-19.5%
ROE-12.8%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta0.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.76bearish
IV161%elevated
Max Pain$12-51.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomer10 largest customers32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers generated an aggregate of 32% and 33% of our revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 4.01HIGH
    On March 4, 2026, Fastly's Audit Committee dismissed Deloitte & Touche LLP and approved appointment of KPMG LLP as independent auditor for fiscal 2026. KPMG was still completing client evaluation procedures as of the filing date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
7.0
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.68Resistance $34.82

Price Targets

$23
$34
A.Upside+39.2%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-30.2% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $23.03. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.12 (+37.8% upside). Prior stop was $23.03. Stop-loss: $23.03.

What are the risks of investing in FSLY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -8.7%), Material insider selling (56 sells, 0.98% of cap).

Is FSLY overvalued or undervalued?

Fastly, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 71.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSLY?

16 analysts cover FSLY with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Fastly, Inc. do?Fastly operates an edge cloud platform providing CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, WAAP), and compute services at the internet...

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform providing CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, WAAP), and compute services at the internet edge, serving enterprises in media, ecommerce, gaming, and high-tech globally. Revenue is usage-based and subscription-driven; the company reported a net loss of $121.7M in FY2025 with $1.1B accumulated deficit.

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