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FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.Sell4.1·$25.20-0.43%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FRP Holdings shows strong cash conversion and balance-sheet quality metrics, but declining revenue, an exhausted-upside signal, and a rich valuation cap the near-term reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Conversion Piotroski QualityStable
  • Declining RevenueStable
  • Momentum Stalling Exhausted UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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FRP Holdings, Inc. (FRPH) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $25.20: Expensive valuation; Weak overall score: 4.1/10.

FRP Holdings, Inc. is a Florida-based real estate company operating through four segments: leasing ten warehouses and other in-service industrial and commercial properties, leasing approximately 16,640 acres of mining royalty land in Florida and Georgia, developing land parcels... Read more

$25.20+0.1% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#15 of 19 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.33%
Stop $23.88Target $25.23(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $25.20: Expensive valuation; Weak overall score: 4.1/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on SEC filing concern. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About FRP Holdings, Inc.

About FRP Holdings, Inc.

Vulcan Materials Company, one of just five tenants in FRP Holdings' Mining Royalty Lands segment, accounted for 26% of the company's consolidated revenue in 2025. Beyond mining royalties on roughly 16,640 acres of Florida and Georgia land, FRP Holdings owns ten warehouses across three business parks in its Industrial and Commercial segment, develops apartment, retail, industrial, and office land through its Development segment, and holds multifamily joint ventures including Dock 79 and The Maren along the Anacostia River in Washington, D.C.

FRP Holdings earns royalty income tied to construction aggregate mining -- crushed stone, sand, and similar materials extracted from its Florida and Georgia land -- making that segment's results sensitive to residential, commercial, and infrastructure construction activity, which the company describes as cyclical. Its Industrial and Commercial segment generates lease income from warehouses and office space, while the Development segment converts raw land into income-producing buildings, either building and holding them or selling to or partnering with third parties; in October 2025 the company acquired the business operations and development pipeline of Altman Logistics Properties, adding industrial projects in Lakeland and Broward County, Florida. As of December 31, 2025, the company had $193,958,000 of consolidated debt secured by developed properties carrying a book value of $276,460,000, and it also operates an uncollateralized revolving credit facility carrying customary covenants limiting additional debt and dividends.

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Beyond the Vulcan relationship, FRP's stabilized property base is itself geographically concentrated: the majority of stabilized assets sit in just three metro areas -- Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Greenville, South Carolina -- leaving the company more exposed to local economic swings, government-job relocation, or oversupply from competing development than a nationally diversified landlord. Governance is similarly concentrated: as of December 31, 2025, Executive Chairman John D. Baker II and his family beneficially owned approximately 35.1% of outstanding common stock in aggregate, giving them effective influence over board elections and major corporate decisions such as mergers or asset sales.

See also: Real Estate · Real Estate Services

From FRP Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.1/10
Expensive valuation
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)506.2
P/E (Fwd)60.3
Mkt Cap$485M
EV/EBITDA63.6
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE0.1%
Rev Growth-3.6%
Beta0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantVulcan Materials Company26%
    10-K Item 1: 'one of which, Vulcan Materials Company (“Vulcan” or “Vulcan Materials”), accounted for 26% of the Company’s consolidated revenues in 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicBaltimore, Washington D.C., and Greenville SC
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our stabilized properties are located in the Baltimore area, Washington, D.C., and Greenville, South Carolina'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 4.01HIGH
    On May 12, 2026, the Audit Committee replaced Baker Tilly US, LLP with Forvis Mazars, LLP as independent registered public accounting firm effective May 15, 2026, following a competitive selection process; Baker Tilly's prior audit opinion contained no adverse opinion, disclaimer, or qualification, and no disagreements were reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
3.9

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.3
P Ocf
7.3
P/OCF: 13.9x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
Low model confidence on this dimension (40%).
GatesSEC critical: Momentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.19Resistance $25.74

Price Targets

$24
$25
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Critical SEC filing

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $25.20: Expensive valuation; Weak overall score: 4.1/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $23.88. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.23 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $23.88. Stop-loss: $23.88.

What are the risks of investing in FRPH?

Weak overall score: 4.1/10; Expensive valuation; Weak growth.

Is FRPH overvalued or undervalued?

FRP Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 506.2 (forward 60.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FRPH?

6 analysts cover FRPH with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does FRP Holdings, Inc. do?FRP Holdings, Inc. is a Florida-based real estate company operating through four segments: leasing ten warehouses and...

FRP Holdings, Inc. is a Florida-based real estate company operating through four segments: leasing ten warehouses and other in-service industrial and commercial properties, leasing approximately 16,640 acres of mining royalty land in Florida and Georgia, developing land parcels for apartment, retail, industrial, and office use, and managing mixed-use residential/retail joint ventures. Vulcan Materials Company, one of five tenants in the Mining Royalty Lands segment, accounted for 26% of the company's consolidated revenue in 2025, and the company employed 25 people as of December 31, 2025.

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