Declining revenue, below-threshold business quality, a confirmed long-term price downtrend, and peer-group-bottom rankings on both quality and growth combine to produce an exit signal; the risk/reward is unfavorable and no structural improvement has materialized to support the current price level.
Thesis pillars
- Below Floor Business Quality→Stable
- Peer Group Bottom Rankings↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Decline Weak Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail
Wait for pullback to $43.84. At $48.38 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $43.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Floor & Decor operated 270 warehouse-format stores and five design studios across 39 states as of December 25, 2025, selling hard surface flooring, installation materials, and accessories to professional installers and homeowners. Revenue is generated through transactional... Read more
Wait for pullback to $43.84. At $48.38 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $43.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/10 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
About Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
Floor & Decor's 270 warehouse-format stores and five standalone design studios spanned 39 states as of December 25, 2025, with each warehouse store averaging 76,000 square feet and roughly 4,200 SKUs. Comparable store sales fell 1.8% in fiscal 2025, following a 7.1% decline in fiscal 2024, as elevated mortgage rates and weak existing home sales suppressed remodeling demand. The company carried $486.3 million of inventory outside stores—primarily at distribution centers—to support its broad in-stock model.
Floor & Decor generates transactional retail revenue by selling hard surface flooring—laminate, vinyl, tile, wood, natural stone—installation materials, and adjacent categories at everyday low prices across Pro and homeowner channels. The Pro segment, supported by a dedicated sales force, separate merchandise pickup, and the Pro Premier loyalty program, drives high-ticket repeat purchases from professional installers and commercial buyers. Direct sourcing from more than 240 vendors globally bypasses importers and distributors to maintain price competitiveness. Five company-operated distribution centers near Savannah, Houston, Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Seattle handle fulfillment, with a sixth near Baltimore planned. The company's largest supplier—a multinational—accounted for 10% of net sales in fiscal 2025, with no other individual supplier exceeding that threshold. In 2024, the company began a multi-year ERP implementation expected to complete in phases through 2027.
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The 10-K identifies high sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending, with elevated mortgage rates and low existing home sales directly contributing to negative comparable store sales across both fiscal 2024 and 2025. If high borrowing costs persist or housing turnover stays depressed, consumers may continue deferring flooring purchases—and prolonged weakness could force heavier promotional activity that would further pressure margins and cash flow. The company also notes it will require substantial cash flows from operations to meet fixed operating lease obligations across its largely leased store base.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail
From Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings to watch: Floor And Decor (FND) reports Q3 results tomorrow - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Floor & Decor Shares Slid Even Though Profit Rose - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street negative
- NEWS Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. $FND Stock: Davidson Kahn Capital Management LLC Trims Position - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo cuts target for Floor & Decor stock from USD 55.00 to USD 45.00 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de negative
- NEWS FND Maintains Hold by Jefferies -- Price Target Lowered to $47.0 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-10-28T12:03:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWSupplierlargest supplier10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest supplier, which is multinational, accounted for 10% of our net sales in fiscal 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $43.84. At $48.38 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $43.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $49.87 (+3.1%), stop $41.56 (−16.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.87 (+3.1% upside). Target $49.87 (+3.1%), stop $41.56 (−16.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $41.56.
Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
28 analysts cover FND with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. do?Floor & Decor operated 270 warehouse-format stores and five design studios across 39 states as of December 25, 2025,...
Floor & Decor operated 270 warehouse-format stores and five design studios across 39 states as of December 25, 2025, selling hard surface flooring, installation materials, and accessories to professional installers and homeowners. Revenue is generated through transactional retail sales at everyday low prices, supported by direct sourcing from more than 240 global vendors.