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Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Floor and Decor is a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring operating 270 warehouse-format stores and 5 design studios across 39 US states as of December 25, 2025, plus a commercial surfaces business. Revenue comes from retail sales of laminate/vinyl, tile, wood, stone, and... Read more

$44.18+9.7% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#3 of 3 Home Improvement Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.65%
Stop $41.73Target $48.52(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$53.91+22.0%22 analysts
$48.52our TP
$44.18price
$53.91mean
$37
$75

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth-0.7%
Beta1.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$28-37.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWSupplierlargest multinational supplier10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest supplier, which is multinational, accounted for 10% of our net sales in fiscal 2025, while no other individual supplier accounted for 10% or more of our net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
3.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
1.8
Roa
2.0
Net Margin
2.1
Roe
2.8
Fcf Quality
3.2
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.4
Gross Margin
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 40% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Revenue shrinking — -0.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Earnings Growth
5.6
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $43.02Resistance $53.95

Price Targets

$42
$49
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $41.73. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.52 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $41.73. Stop-loss: $41.73.

What are the risks of investing in FND?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is FND overvalued or undervalued?

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FND?

28 analysts cover FND with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. do?Floor and Decor is a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring operating 270 warehouse-format stores and 5 design...

Floor and Decor is a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring operating 270 warehouse-format stores and 5 design studios across 39 US states as of December 25, 2025, plus a commercial surfaces business. Revenue comes from retail sales of laminate/vinyl, tile, wood, stone, and installation materials to professional installers and homeowners via direct manufacturer sourcing.

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