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Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.95; Below-average business quality.

Floor & Decor is a specialty hard surface flooring retailer operating 270 warehouse-format stores averaging approximately 76,000 sq ft and 5 design studios across 39 U.S. states, targeting professional installers, DIY, and BIY customers. Revenue comes from retail flooring sales... Read more

$47.66+30.3% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#2 of 3 Home Improvement Retail
Stop $45.08Target $62.26(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$69.18+45.2%22 analysts
$62.26our TP
$47.66price
$69.18mean
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth2.0%
Beta1.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C6.95bearish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$33-31.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
3.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
1.2
Operating Margin
1.8
Roa
2.1
Net Margin
2.2
Roe
3.0
Gross Margin
5.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 14% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $46.47Resistance $56.55

Price Targets

$45
$62
A.Upside+30.6%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap)
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $45.08. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.26 (+30.3% upside). Prior stop was $45.08. Stop-loss: $45.08.

What are the risks of investing in FND?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap).

Is FND overvalued or undervalued?

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FND?

28 analysts cover FND with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. do?Floor & Decor is a specialty hard surface flooring retailer operating 270 warehouse-format stores averaging...

Floor & Decor is a specialty hard surface flooring retailer operating 270 warehouse-format stores averaging approximately 76,000 sq ft and 5 design studios across 39 U.S. states, targeting professional installers, DIY, and BIY customers. Revenue comes from retail flooring sales at everyday low prices; same-store sales declined 1.8% in fiscal 2025 due to housing market weakness and elevated mortgage rates.

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