Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.86: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Firefly Aerospace provides launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and spacecraft solutions (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra) augmented by SciTec software and sensor capabilities to national security, government, and commercial customers. Revenue is highly concentrated; the company completed... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.86: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop five customers86%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers together accounted for over 86% of our revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWFirefly entered confirmatory employment letters with executives Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez on April 16, 2026 with updated salary/bonus terms. Board also approved amendments to Executive Severance Plan.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWOn February 25, 2026, Firefly's Compensation Committee adopted the Executive Severance Plan providing a standardized severance framework for eligible officers. No officer departure reported.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -208.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.86: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $32.50. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.42 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $32.50. Stop-loss: $32.50.
Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers (86.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
Firefly Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -30.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover FLY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.
What does Firefly Aerospace Inc. do?Firefly Aerospace provides launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and spacecraft solutions (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra)...
Firefly Aerospace provides launch vehicles (Alpha, Eclipse) and spacecraft solutions (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra) augmented by SciTec software and sensor capabilities to national security, government, and commercial customers. Revenue is highly concentrated; the company completed its IPO in August 2025 and reported net losses of $298.3M for fiscal 2025.