Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.65: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.65: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About Firefly Aerospace Inc.
About Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Firefly Aerospace held more than 30 planned Alpha launches under contract at December 31, 2025, with top five customers generating over 86% of 2025 revenue across U.S. Space Force, NASA, and commercial satellite operators. Alpha — the only U.S. commercial orbital rocket in the 1,000 kilogram payload class — completed seven launches, while Blue Ghost Mission 1 achieved the first commercial lunar landing on March 2, 2025. Firefly completed its IPO on August 8, 2025, recording a $298.3 million net loss for the year.
Firefly earns revenue from dedicated orbital launch contracts, spacecraft missions, and defense software. In Launch, Alpha serves U.S. Space Force responsive missions — the VICTUS NOX mission demonstrated a notification-to-launch turnaround of approximately 24 hours, securing follow-on VICTUS SOL and VICTUS HAZE contracts, and Alpha is under contract for the Department of War's MACH-TB hypersonic test program. Eclipse, developed in partnership with Northrop Grumman and designed to carry 16,000 kilograms to Low Earth Orbit with a reusable first stage, remains in development with Stage 1 tank assembly completion anticipated in 2026. Spacecraft Solutions revenue comes from NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services task orders — Blue Ghost Mission 1 carried 10 NASA payloads at a $102.1 million contract value, and three additional lunar missions are under contract. Elytra spacecraft are contracted for the National Reconnaissance Office and the Defense Innovation Unit. The October 2025 SciTec acquisition added AI-enabled defense software revenue covering missile warning, space domain awareness, and Golden Dome programs, along with 470 specialized employees.
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Five customers generated over 86% of 2025 revenue and approximately 81% of backlog — a concentration that exposes Firefly to outsized revenue volatility from any single government program reduction. The 10-K explicitly flags the current administration's commitment to decreasing federal spending as a material risk to contract continuation; government customers may also exercise termination-for-convenience rights without penalty. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a $45 million expansion of its revolving credit facility to $305 million total, maturing August 8, 2028, signaling ongoing capital needs as Eclipse development accelerates.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why Is Firefly Aerospace Stock Soaring Monday? — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Roku Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 2 Downgrades For Monday — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Rocket Lab, Firefly Upgraded — SpaceX IPO Was Your Chance To Load These Stocks — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Datadog Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Monday — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keybanc Upgrades Firefly Aerospace to Overweight, Announces $50 Price Target — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:07:23Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 customers86%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers together accounted for over 86% of our revenue and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 81% of our backlog as of December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWConfirmatory employment letters executed with Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez memorializing base salaries ($500K, $420K, $425K) and bonus targets. All three to commence participation in Executive Severance Plan.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee adopted Executive Severance Plan on February 25, 2026, providing standardized severance framework for eligible officers and management employees upon qualifying terminations.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -193.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.65: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.35. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $41.76 (+23.9% upside). Prior stop was $31.35. Stop-loss: $31.35.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (86.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
Firefly Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -24.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover FLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Firefly Aerospace Inc. do?Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development),...
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7 launches completed and over 30 planned launches under contract as of December 31, 2025.