Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Latest news
- Firefly Aerospace Moves Into New HQ, Centralizing Operations In Texas — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- Why Is Firefly Aerospace Stock Blasting Off On Monday? — benzinga May 18, 2026 positive
- Firefly Aerospace Subsidiary SciTec Awarded Contract By Air Force Research Laboratory To Support Development Of Advanced — benzinga May 11, 2026 positive
- Intuitive Machines Hits 52-Week High: Why LUNR Stock Is Rocketing On Monday? — benzinga May 11, 2026 neutral
- Space Earnings Heat Up: Rocket Lab Tops $200M, Firefly Hits Record Revenue, Redwire Backlog Surges — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 customers86%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers together accounted for over 86% of our revenue and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 81% of our backlog as of December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWConfirmatory employment letters executed with Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez memorializing base salaries ($500K, $420K, $425K) and bonus targets. All three to commence participation in Executive Severance Plan.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee adopted Executive Severance Plan on February 25, 2026, providing standardized severance framework for eligible officers and management employees upon qualifying terminations.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -193.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.05. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.76 (+11.4% upside). Prior stop was $39.05. Stop-loss: $39.05.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (86.0%); Target reached (-2.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
Firefly Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -37.3). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover FLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Firefly Aerospace Inc. do?Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development),...
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense company providing orbital launch (Alpha rocket, Eclipse in development), lunar/orbital spacecraft (Blue Ghost lander, Elytra), and national security software (SciTec AI defense) to US government and commercial customers. Alpha has 7 launches completed and over 30 planned launches under contract as of December 31, 2025.