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FHNFirst Horizon CorporationBuy Wait6.0·$22.67
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Horizon has compiled a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging more than 10% above consensus and screens attractively at a forward P/E of 10.5x with a PEG of 0.36; however, there is no identified competitive moat to sustain long-term earnings power, the put/call ratio of 7.22 signals pronounced bearish options positioning, and the stock offers only 0.7% upside to its near-term resistance with an unfavorable risk/reward.

Thesis pillars

  • No Competitive Moat→Stable
  • Perfect Beat Streak Near Term Catalyst→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 1 day (2026-10-15). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $22.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.67. Engine's entry $22.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with $84 billion in total assets and over 450 locations in 23 U.S. states, concentrated in the South. Lending is the primary revenue driver across a $64 billion... Read more

$22.67+7.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#96 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 3.11%)Payout30.77%sustainable
Entry $22.09(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $21.29Target $24.45(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$27.17+19.8%21 analysts
$24.45our TP
$22.67price
$27.17mean
$30

Wait for pullback to $22.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.67. Engine's entry $22.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 15, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$10.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth9.0%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.27bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$18-20.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.39Resistance $24.25

Price Targets

$21
$22
$24
A.Upside+7.9%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-15 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FHN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $22.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.67. Engine's entry $22.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $24.45 (+7.9%), stop $21.29 (−6.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FHN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.45 (+7.9% upside). Target $24.45 (+7.9%), stop $21.29 (−6.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $21.29.

What are the risks of investing in FHN?

Thin upside margin: 7.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is FHN overvalued or undervalued?

First Horizon Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FHN?

24 analysts cover FHN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $27.

What does First Horizon Corporation do?First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with...

First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with $84 billion in total assets and over 450 locations in 23 U.S. states, concentrated in the South. Lending is the primary revenue driver across a $64 billion loan portfolio, with commercial and industrial loans the dominant segment; the wholesale banking arm serves institutional clients through fixed income trading and capital markets.

Related stocks: FBK (FB Financial Corporation) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo) · ONB (Old National Bancorp) · BHRB (Burke & Herbert Financial Servi) · HAPN (Happen, Inc.)
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