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First Financial Bankshares, Inc (FFIN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-only community bank holding company with $15.45B in assets, operating 79 financial centers across Central, North Central, Southeast, and West Texas as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from commercial banking, trust management, and... Read more

$31.75+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#127 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.77%(5y avg 1.94%)Payout41.30%sustainable
Stop $30.19Target $32.30(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$33.75+6.3%4 analysts
$32.30our TP
$31.75price
$33.75mean
$34

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — First Financial Bankshares, Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn42.4%
ROE14.6%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta0.84
Dividend2.77%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1: 'we have chosen to keep our Company focused on the State of Texas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.9
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-34.4%)
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.89Resistance $32.96

Price Targets

$30
$32
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFIN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.30 (+1.7%), stop $30.19 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.30 (+1.7% upside). Target $32.30 (+1.7%), stop $30.19 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $30.19.

What are the risks of investing in FFIN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is FFIN overvalued or undervalued?

First Financial Bankshares, Inc trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FFIN?

9 analysts cover FFIN with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $34.

What does First Financial Bankshares, Inc do?First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-only community bank holding company with $15.45B in assets, operating 79...

First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-only community bank holding company with $15.45B in assets, operating 79 financial centers across Central, North Central, Southeast, and West Texas as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from commercial banking, trust management, and insurance services to individuals and small-to-mid-sized businesses across eight regional operations.

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