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First Financial Bankshares, Inc (FFIN) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating First Financial Bank across 79 locations statewide, including major metros and smaller communities. It provides commercial banking, trust, and wealth management services through a community-bank... Read more

$32.39-0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#98 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $30.60Target $32.34(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$33.75+4.2%4 analysts
$32.34our TP
$32.39price
$33.75mean
$34

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn42.4%
ROE14.6%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta0.83
Dividend2.76%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV68%elevated
Max Pain$30-7.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1: 'We have chosen to keep our Company focused on the State of Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David Bailey promoted to President and CEO of First Financial Bankshares and First Financial Bank effective February 1, 2026, succeeding F. Scott Dueser who transitions to Executive Chairman pursuant to a transition and retirement agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.7
Bollinger
2.6
52w Position
7.0
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.38Resistance $33.00

Price Targets

$31
$32
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFIN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $32.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.34 (-0.2%), stop $30.60 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.34 (-0.2% upside). Target $32.34 (-0.2%), stop $30.60 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $30.60.

What are the risks of investing in FFIN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FFIN overvalued or undervalued?

First Financial Bankshares, Inc trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FFIN?

11 analysts cover FFIN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $34.

What does First Financial Bankshares, Inc do?First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating First Financial Bank across 79...

First Financial Bankshares is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating First Financial Bank across 79 locations statewide, including major metros and smaller communities. It provides commercial banking, trust, and wealth management services through a community-bank model with local advisory boards; total assets were approximately $15.45 billion as of December 31, 2025.

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