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First Bancorp (FBNC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.04 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina.

First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113 branches (100 in NC, 13 in SC) with $12.7 billion in total assets and $10.7 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking,... Read more

$58.04+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#107 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $54.44Target $59.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$66.50+14.6%4 analysts
$59.54our TP
$58.04price
$66.50mean
$68

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.04 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.8%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta0.86
Dividend1.67%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth Carolina and South Carolina
    10-K Item 1: 'Because we operate primarily within North Carolina and South Carolina, the economic conditions of these areas could have a material impact on the Company'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Michael G. Mayer, President of First Bancorp and CEO of First Bank, retired effective February 28, 2026, in connection with the succession plan. No named successor announced; Mr. Mayer continues as a board director.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02LOW
    Director Mary Clara Capel retired from both boards effective January 27, 2026. No disagreement with operations cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
5.9
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.07Resistance $60.76

Price Targets

$54
$60
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.04 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $54.44. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.54 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $54.44. Stop-loss: $54.44.

What are the risks of investing in FBNC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is FBNC overvalued or undervalued?

First Bancorp trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FBNC?

10 analysts cover FBNC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $67.

What does First Bancorp do?First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113...

First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113 branches (100 in NC, 13 in SC) with $12.7 billion in total assets and $10.7 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking, mortgage origination, and wealth management services primarily to individuals and small-to-medium businesses in the Carolinas.

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