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ETREntergy CorporationSell4.8·$104.50
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock has already reached and exceeded its near-term resistance target with deeply negative free cash flow, high leverage, and a high-severity regulatory concentration tied to a single nuclear facility — making the current entry point unattractive despite three beats in the last four quarters and rising on-balance volume.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Exceeds Target No Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
  • Single Asset Regulatory Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Entergy Corporation (ETR) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ShortModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. At $104.50, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: System Energy single nuclear facility.

Entergy Corporation delivers electricity to approximately 3.1 million customers across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas through five regulated utility subsidiaries operating approximately 25,000 MW of generating capacity. With $12.9 billion in 2025 annual revenue and... Read more

$104.50+4.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#33 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-8.77%
IncomeYield2.44%(5y avg 3.23%)Payout64.45%
Stop $100.92Target $109.06(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$121.17+16.0%20 analysts
$109.06our TP
$104.50price
$121.17mean
$91
$133

Sell if holding. At $104.50, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: System Energy single nuclear facility. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: System Energy single nuclear facility
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.9
P/E (Fwd)20.6
Mkt Cap$50.2B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.45
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$90-13.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLouisiana
    10-K Item 1: 'Entergy Louisiana | Portions of Louisiana | | 1,115 | | | 36 |'
  • HIGHregulatorySystem Energy single nuclear facility
    10-K Item 1A: 'System Energy owns and, through an affiliate, operates a single nuclear generating facility, and it is dependent on sales to affiliated companies for all of its revenues.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.6
Revenue Growth
4.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.3
52w Position
7.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
5.4
Growth Rank
6.3
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
79 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $96.92Resistance $105.32

Price Targets

$101
$109
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $104.50, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: System Energy single nuclear facility. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $100.92. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ETR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.06 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $100.92. Stop-loss: $100.92.

What are the risks of investing in ETR?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: System Energy single nuclear facility; Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Is ETR overvalued or undervalued?

Entergy Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.9 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ETR?

29 analysts cover ETR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $121.

What does Entergy Corporation do?Entergy Corporation delivers electricity to approximately 3.1 million customers across Arkansas, Louisiana,...

Entergy Corporation delivers electricity to approximately 3.1 million customers across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas through five regulated utility subsidiaries operating approximately 25,000 MW of generating capacity. With $12.9 billion in 2025 annual revenue and approximately 12,000 employees, the company earns returns through cost-of-service rates regulated by the FERC and state utility commissions.

Related stocks: ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · NEE (NextEra Energy, Inc.) · PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · ED (Consolidated Edison, Inc.) · TXNM (TXNM Energy, Inc.)
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