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ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.Sell4.7·$281.05-0.95%
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Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $281.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away).

Essex Property Trust is a West Coast-focused apartment REIT owning 259 operating communities with 63,077 apartment homes in California and Washington metropolitan areas, including Seattle, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Orange County. Revenue comes from residential... Read more

$281.05+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#10 of 16 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.03%
IncomeYield3.65%(5y avg 3.50%)Payout115.86%
Stop $271.32Target $282.54(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$286.50+1.9%23 analysts
$282.54our TP
$281.05price
$286.50mean
$239
$310

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $281.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Essex Property Trust, Inc.

About Essex Property Trust, Inc.

Essex Property Trust managed 259 apartment communities totaling 63,077 homes along the West Coast at December 31, 2025, after acquiring 1,523 apartment homes for $829.5 million and disposing of 1,230 homes for $563.8 million during the year. All communities are located in California and Washington metropolitan areas, with the sole consolidated development project comprising 543 homes at an estimated $358.0 million total cost. The company held Baa1/Stable and BBB+/Stable investment-grade ratings from Moody's and S&P, respectively, and $1.58 billion in unsecured revolving capacity.

Essex earns revenue from short-term residential leases (typically one to two years), which provide mark-to-market flexibility but also expose rental revenue quickly to market softness. The company targets supply-constrained markets defined by limited developable land, political growth barriers such as urban growth boundaries, and natural topographic constraints — alongside high-median-income employment centers on the West Coast. The 2025 capital activity included issuing $400.0 million in 5.375% senior unsecured notes due 2035 and $350.0 million in 4.875% senior unsecured notes due 2036. The company carries a wholly owned captive insurance subsidiary, Pacific Western Insurance LLC, with $106.7 million in cash and marketable securities to self-insure earthquake and property losses. In July 2025, Essex formed Wesco VII with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board, with each partner committing $50.0 million at a 50% ownership interest.

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All 259 Essex communities sit within California and Washington metropolitan areas, making the portfolio exposed to West Coast regulatory environments that the 10-K describes as more litigious, highly regulated, and subject to higher taxes than most other states. California's Proposition 13 generally limits annual reassessment increases to 2% of assessed value, but property transfers trigger full reassessments that could substantially raise effective tax costs on acquisitions. The 2025 acquisition program deepened this concentration — all seven purchased communities were located in California — even as Essex reduced Washington state exposure via the September 2025 sale of 8th & Republican in WA.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Residential

From Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.4% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)47.1
Mkt Cap$19.6B
EV/EBITDA19.7
Profit Mgn29.1%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.73
Dividend3.65%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.2
Ps
3.5
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.1
P/OCF: 18.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $268.04Resistance $288.31

Price Targets

$271
$283
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $281.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $271.32. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $282.54 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $271.32. Stop-loss: $271.32.

What are the risks of investing in ESS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.4% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is ESS overvalued or undervalued?

Essex Property Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 47.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESS?

31 analysts cover ESS with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $287.

What does Essex Property Trust, Inc. do?Essex Property Trust is a West Coast-focused apartment REIT owning 259 operating communities with 63,077 apartment...

Essex Property Trust is a West Coast-focused apartment REIT owning 259 operating communities with 63,077 apartment homes in California and Washington metropolitan areas, including Seattle, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Orange County. Revenue comes from residential apartment rents in supply-constrained coastal markets characterized by high single-family home ownership costs and strong job growth.

Related stocks: MRP (Millrose Properties, Inc.) · UDR (UDR, Inc.) · SUI (Sun Communities, Inc.) · AVB (AvalonBay Communities, Inc.) · AMH (American Homes 4 Rent)
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