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Erasca, Inc. (ERAS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.69: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two Phase 1 programs: ERAS-0015 (pan-RAS molecular glue, AURORAS-1 trial) and ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor, BOREALIS-1 trial). The company has no approved products... Read more

$9.69+88.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#84 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $8.90Target $18.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.9:1
Analyst target$20.70+113.6%10 analysts
$18.01our TP
$9.69price
$20.70mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.69: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: RAS/MAPK pathway
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-16.2
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-20.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-33.3%
Rev Growth
Beta1.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV103%elevated
Max Pain$3-74.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductRAS/MAPK pathway
    10-K Item 1A: 'all of our current product candidates and development programs are based on the RAS/MAPK pathway'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 5.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.70Resistance $24.28

Price Targets

$9
$18
A.Upside+85.9%
A.R:R5.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERAS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.69: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $8.90. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ERAS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.01 (+88.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.90. Stop-loss: $8.90.

What are the risks of investing in ERAS?

Concentration risk — Product: RAS/MAPK pathway; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is ERAS overvalued or undervalued?

Erasca, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ERAS?

17 analysts cover ERAS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Erasca, Inc. do?Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two...

Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two Phase 1 programs: ERAS-0015 (pan-RAS molecular glue, AURORAS-1 trial) and ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor, BOREALIS-1 trial). The company has no approved products and recorded a net loss of $124.5M in 2025 with an accumulated deficit of $892.2M since inception.

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