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Erasca, Inc. (ERAS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.12: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two Phase 1 clinical programs: ERAS-0015 (pan-RAS molecular glue, AURORAS-1 trial) and ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor, BOREALIS-1 trial). The company has no approved products or... Read more

$11.12+58.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#79 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-6.63%
Stop $10.35Target $17.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$20.30+82.6%10 analysts
$17.66our TP
$11.12price
$20.30mean
$9
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.12: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Erasca, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.8), Material insider selling (19 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-18.3
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA-23.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-69.9%
Rev Growth
Beta0.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV90%elevated
Max Pain$3-77.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.70Resistance $24.28

Price Targets

$10
$18
A.Upside+58.8%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.8), Material insider selling (19 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ERAS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.12: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.35. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ERAS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.66 (+58.7% upside). Prior stop was $10.35. Stop-loss: $10.35.

What are the risks of investing in ERAS?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.8), Material insider selling (19 sells, 0.02% of cap).

Is ERAS overvalued or undervalued?

Erasca, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ERAS?

17 analysts cover ERAS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Erasca, Inc. do?Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two Phase 1...

Erasca is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, with two Phase 1 clinical programs: ERAS-0015 (pan-RAS molecular glue, AURORAS-1 trial) and ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor, BOREALIS-1 trial). The company has no approved products or revenue; it funds operations from equity, with cash extended into 2H 2028 following a $242.7M public offering in January 2026.

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