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ELSEquity Lifestyle Properties, InSell5.7·$59.61
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The company demonstrates strong operational quality — 25% margins and free cash flow running at 124% of net income — and shows a constructive technical breakout with a golden cross and RSI at 60, but the stock has moved past its near-term price target, creating a negative risk/reward profile that argues for patience rather than a new or increased position at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Soft Growth At Premium Multiple↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Margins And Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Technical Breakout With Momentum→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Equity Lifestyle Properties, In (ELS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Earnings in 6 days (2026-10-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $59.61, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Equity Lifestyle Properties owns and operates 453 lifestyle-oriented properties with 173,371 sites across 35 U.S. states and British Columbia, consisting of manufactured home communities, RV parks, and marinas. Revenue derives from site leases, home sales and rentals, and... Read more

$59.61+4.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 15 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.11%
IncomeYield3.68%(5y avg 2.60%)Payout102.17%
Stop $57.59Target $62.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$69.26+16.2%19 analysts
$62.34our TP
$59.61price
$69.26mean
$78

Sell if holding. At $59.61, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Equity Lifestyle Properties, In

About Equity Lifestyle Properties, In

Equity Lifestyle Properties' portfolio of 453 properties and 173,371 sites spans 35 U.S. states and British Columbia, with Florida generating 45.7% of total property operating revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Northeast, Arizona, and California contributed 11.1%, 10.9%, and 10.2%, respectively, of property operating revenue for the same period. The portfolio has grown from roughly 387 properties with over 143,900 sites a decade ago, and approximately 117 properties carry potential expansion sites representing about 6,300 available acres.

Equity Lifestyle Properties earns revenue through site leases, home sales and rental operations, and membership subscriptions. Manufactured home community residents typically hold month-to-month or one-year leases on the land beneath homes they own; moving a factory-built home involves substantial cost, supporting low turnover and stable occupancy. RV community sites are leased on annual or short-term bases; the Thousand Trails membership brand grants subscription members access to properties for up to 21 consecutive days per annual payment. Beginning in the first quarter of 2025, the company introduced subscription-based upgrade products with two- to four-year terms. Home sales and rentals operate through Realty Systems, Inc. (RSI), a taxable REIT subsidiary. The company employs roughly 3,700 full-time, part-time, and seasonal employees, with all properties managed internally.

Show full overview

Florida's 45.7% share of total property operating revenue subjects the company to Florida Statutes Chapter 723, which governs MH community rental rate increases and requires such increases to be reasonable, and to catastrophic weather risk. Certain California jurisdictions cap rent increases to CPI changes, and rent control legislation has been considered in additional states. Local government entities in certain rent-controlled markets have at times investigated eminent domain proceedings at values the company contests as below land value, though no such proceeding had commenced as of the December 31, 2025 filing date.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Residential

From Equity Lifestyle Properties, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.5
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$11.8B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE22.9%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.64
Dividend3.68%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$55-7.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'most notably Florida, Northeast, California and Arizona, which comprised 45.7%, 11.1%, 10.2% and 10.9%, respectively, of our total property operating revenue'
  • LOWGeographicNortheast11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'most notably Florida, Northeast, California and Arizona, which comprised 45.7%, 11.1%, 10.2% and 10.9%, respectively, of our total property operating revenue'
  • LOWGeographicArizona11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'most notably Florida, Northeast, California and Arizona, which comprised 45.7%, 11.1%, 10.2% and 10.9%, respectively, of our total property operating revenue'
  • LOWGeographicCalifornia10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'most notably Florida, Northeast, California and Arizona, which comprised 45.7%, 11.1%, 10.2% and 10.9%, respectively, of our total property operating revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $57.45Resistance $61.07

Price Targets

$58
$62
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $59.61, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $57.59. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the ELS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.34 (+4.6% upside). Prior stop was $57.59. Stop-loss: $57.59.

What are the risks of investing in ELS?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is ELS overvalued or undervalued?

Equity Lifestyle Properties, In trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELS?

22 analysts cover ELS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Equity Lifestyle Properties, In do?Equity Lifestyle Properties owns and operates 453 lifestyle-oriented properties with 173,371 sites across 35 U.S....

Equity Lifestyle Properties owns and operates 453 lifestyle-oriented properties with 173,371 sites across 35 U.S. states and British Columbia, consisting of manufactured home communities, RV parks, and marinas. Revenue derives from site leases, home sales and rentals, and membership subscriptions; Florida generates 46% of total property operating revenues.

Related stocks: MRP (Millrose Properties, Inc.) · INVH (Invitation Homes Inc.) · UMH (UMH Properties, Inc.) · JAN (Janus Living, Inc.) · AMH (American Homes 4 Rent)
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