DNA shows a technically-driven recovery bounce (improving MACD, RSI 78) inside a broader fundamental decline — falling revenue, extreme insider selling, and a V8 price target already reached with negative risk/reward asymmetry.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Recovery Bounce→Stable
- Declining Core Revenue→Stable
- Extreme Insider Selling→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality.
Ginkgo Bioworks provides cell engineering and biosecurity R&D services to government and commercial customers, using its Autonomous Lab automation platform and reusable data assets to help customers discover, optimize, and manufacture biological products across pharmaceutical,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.
About Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.
Ginkgo Bioworks generates revenue from two segments — cell engineering, where it provides R&D tools and biological services to pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial customers, and biosecurity, where governments are the primary customers for pathogen detection and monitoring — after accumulating a $6.2 billion deficit through December 31, 2025 funding its Autonomous Lab automation platform.
Ginkgo's cell engineering solutions business, its original and largest revenue source, charges fees for R&D services, with some legacy programs carrying downstream royalties, milestone payments, or equity stakes in customers; a newer cell engineering tools business sells automation hardware, software, and data-generation services including Functional Genomics, Antibody Developability, and Small Molecule Developability Datapoints. Biosecurity revenue comes from government contracts for its Canopy biomonitoring and Horizon digital surveillance offerings, which depend on continued public and multilateral funding. Ginkgo competes against incumbent cell engineering tools providers with deeper laboratory integration and faces adoption hurdles as a newer entrant in that market. The company depends on a limited number of suppliers, some single-source, for laboratory reagents, consumables, and contract manufacturing capacity supporting its research and production.
Show full overview
Ginkgo's biosecurity revenue is structurally tied to government willingness to fund pathogen-surveillance infrastructure rather than commercial demand: the 10-K states that its ability to commercialize biosecurity offerings depends on available government, private, and multilateral funding, and that governments deciding the service unnecessary or unaffordable could constrain growth. Separately, Ginkgo's research and production depend on a limited number of suppliers, some single-source, for laboratory reagents and contract manufacturing, exposing both its solutions and tools businesses to potential delays if any one supplier fails to deliver on schedule.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ginkgo Bioworks Director Catherine Cifuentes-Rojas Releases Biotherapeutics Go/No-Go Checklist — fiscal.ai Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ginkgo Bioworks Director Catherine Cifuentes-Rojas Announces Reverse Mentorship Commitment — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ginkgo Bioworks to Review Q3 2026 Performance on November 5 — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Raises Price Target to $11 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS Glaukos Reveals Superior Intraocular Pressure Reduction With Novel Eye Therapy — benzinga Oct 9, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of suppliers, some of which are single-source suppliers, and contract manufacturers for critical supplies'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -48.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -219.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.83. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $6.80 reached (−41.6% from $11.65); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $10.83. Stop-loss: $10.83.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Target reached (-41.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -4.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate DNA, with a consensus score of 2.0/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $8.
What does Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. do?Ginkgo Bioworks provides cell engineering and biosecurity R&D services to government and commercial customers, using...
Ginkgo Bioworks provides cell engineering and biosecurity R&D services to government and commercial customers, using its Autonomous Lab automation platform and reusable data assets to help customers discover, optimize, and manufacture biological products across pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial markets. Revenue comes primarily from technical development fees and milestone payments for cell engineering programs, plus government contracts for pathogen surveillance and biosecurity monitoring.