Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc (DAWN) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the DAWN stock price target?

Take-profit $24.76 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.47.

Q: What are the risks of investing in DAWN?

Concentration risk — Product: OJEMDA; Target reached (-13.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Target reached (-13.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Q: Is DAWN overvalued or undervalued?

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -177.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about DAWN?

13 analysts cover DAWN with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $22.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company; its first product OJEMDA (tovorafenib) was FDA-approved in April 2024 for relapsed/refractory pediatric low-grade glioma. As of December 2025, the company had generated ~$212.6M in cumulative OJEMDA... Read more

$21.50+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#66 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $21.47Target $24.76(default +15%)A.R:R -0.9:1

Analyst target$21.50+0.0%6 analysts

Range unavailable (6 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: OJEMDA

Target reached (-13.1% upside)

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-177.6

Mkt Cap$2.2B

EV/EBITDA-14.4

Profit Mgn-67.8%

ROE-22.7%

Rev Growth83.9%

Beta-1.75

DividendNone

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish

IV52%elevated

Max Pain$5-76.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductOJEMDA
10-K Item 1A: 'our near-term revenues are highly dependent on, and a meaningful portion of the value of our company relates to, our ability to successfully commercialize OJEMDA'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-23Item 5.01HIGH
Servier Pharmaceuticals' tender offer for all Day One shares at $21.50/share expired April 22, 2026. Servier acquired all outstanding shares per Merger Agreement dated March 6, 2026. Change of control completed.
SEC filing →
2026-04-23Item 1.02MEDIUM
Material agreement terminated upon completion of Servier merger on April 22-23, 2026, per Merger Agreement. No separate reason cited beyond merger closing.
SEC filing →
2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
Director/officer departures upon Servier merger completion effective April 22-23, 2026; expected consequence of change-of-control closing per Merger Agreement from March 6, 2026.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value2.015%0.30

Quality3.415%0.51

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum6.510%0.65

Sentiment3.610%0.36

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.410%0.54

Technical Setup3.35%0.17

Risk Profile7.05%0.35

Catalyst4.75%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)5.11

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

0.6

Analyst Target

3.0

Expensive valuation

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

0.0

Support Resistance

0.0

52w Position

10.0

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Current Ratio

5.0

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

6.7

Rule Of 40

7.6

Gross Margin

10.0

Cash-burning: FCF -39% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: 45 (pass)

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment

0.0

Analyst Rating

5.0

Price Target

5.0

Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-36.7%)

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

70 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.36Resistance $21.53

Price Targets

$21

$25

A.Upside+15.2%

A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DAWN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.47. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DAWN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.76 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.47. Stop-loss: $21.47.

What are the risks of investing in DAWN?

Concentration risk — Product: OJEMDA; Target reached (-13.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is DAWN overvalued or undervalued?

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -177.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DAWN?

13 analysts cover DAWN with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc do?Day One Biopharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company; its first product OJEMDA (tovorafenib) was...