Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native environments, serving enterprises and government agencies with approximately 3,300 employees worldwide. Revenue is primarily recurring through subscription licenses... Read more
Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Commvault Systems, Inc.
Latest news
- CommVault Systems (NASDAQ:CVLT) Price Target Raised to $125.00 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- Commvault Systems (CVLT) Surpasses Market Returns: Some Facts Worth Knowing - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- CommVault Systems (NASDAQ:CVLT) Rating Increased to Hold at Scotiabank - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- Commvault Earnings Beat Estimates. CFO Says AI Boosting Cyber Resilience Demand. - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- Why CommVault Systems Stock Is Skyrocketing Today - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerArrow35%10-K Item 1A: 'Arrow accounted for approximately 35%, 36% and 37% of our total revenues for the years ended March 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02LOWGary Merrill appointed CFO effective April 13, 2026, transitioning from Chief Commercial Officer. Geoff Haydon appointed President of Customer and Field Operations and resigned as a director on the same date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $94.83. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.88 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $94.83. Stop-loss: $94.83.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Commvault Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.1 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover CVLT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $133.
What does Commvault Systems, Inc. do?Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native...
Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native environments, serving enterprises and government agencies with approximately 3,300 employees worldwide. Revenue is primarily recurring through subscription licenses and SaaS arrangements; distribution relies heavily on resellers managed by Arrow Electronics, which accounted for 35% of total revenues in fiscal 2025. The platform covers backup/recovery, compliance, ransomware protection, and disaster recovery.