Skip to main content

Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native environments, serving enterprises and government agencies with approximately 3,300 employees worldwide. Revenue is primarily recurring through subscription licenses... Read more

$101.97+17.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#60 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.60%
Stop $94.83Target $119.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$133.20+30.6%15 analysts
$119.88our TP
$101.97price
$133.20mean
$175

Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Commvault Systems, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.1
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA37.4
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE42.5%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta0.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.37bullish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerArrow35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Arrow accounted for approximately 35%, 36% and 37% of our total revenues for the years ended March 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02LOW
    Gary Merrill appointed CFO effective April 13, 2026, transitioning from Chief Commercial Officer. Geoff Haydon appointed President of Customer and Field Operations and resigned as a director on the same date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.2
Support Resistance
3.0
Bollinger
4.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.3
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
4.1
Quality Rank
6.8
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.80Resistance $107.97

Price Targets

$95
$120
A.Upside+17.6%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVLT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $101.97, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $94.83. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the CVLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.88 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $94.83. Stop-loss: $94.83.

What are the risks of investing in CVLT?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 122.6): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is CVLT overvalued or undervalued?

Commvault Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.1 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CVLT?

23 analysts cover CVLT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $133.

What does Commvault Systems, Inc. do?Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native...

Commvault Systems provides cyber resilience and data protection software for hybrid, multi-cloud, and cloud-native environments, serving enterprises and government agencies with approximately 3,300 employees worldwide. Revenue is primarily recurring through subscription licenses and SaaS arrangements; distribution relies heavily on resellers managed by Arrow Electronics, which accounted for 35% of total revenues in fiscal 2025. The platform covers backup/recovery, compliance, ransomware protection, and disaster recovery.

Related stocks: PTC (PTC Inc.) · FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) · DAVE (Dave Inc.) · KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) · GRND (Grindr Inc.)