Cerence screens statistically cheap with a strong recent earnings-beat streak and bullish above-200-day-MA technicals, but a negative asymmetry ratio, an 18% revenue decline, and a failing Rule of 40 score point to extreme risk that the engine flags as an exit candidate.
Thesis pillars
- Peg Valuation Cheapness→Stable
- Revenue Decline Quality Concern→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum.
Cerence builds conversational and audio AI software for automotive voice assistants, licensed to nearly all major automakers and tier-one suppliers on a white-label, per-vehicle basis. The company generated $251.8 million in revenue in fiscal 2025, down 24% from $331.5 million... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Cerence Inc.
About Cerence Inc.
Cerence's voice-assistant software has shipped in more than 525 million vehicles to date, reaching roughly 52% of all cars produced worldwide during fiscal 2025, while the company generated $251.8 million in revenue for the year ended September 30, 2025, down 24% from $331.5 million in fiscal 2024. Automotive OEMs such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and the Volkswagen Group and tier-one suppliers including HARMAN and Bosch split roughly evenly as Cerence's customer base, each representing about 50% of fiscal 2025 revenue.
Cerence licenses edge software components under a per-unit perpetual license model and sells cloud-connected services on multi-year subscription terms paid upfront by OEMs, supplemented by professional-services revenue for design, development, and deployment work tied to each vehicle program. The company estimated a five-year backlog of approximately $1,169.2 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $952.7 million a year earlier, though backlog is not a guarantee of future revenue given customers' ability to alter vehicle shipment volumes. Revenue skews international: Europe and Asia each supplied approximately 42% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with the Americas contributing the remaining 16%. Cerence competes against large technology platforms such as Amazon, Apple, and Google as well as focused rivals SoundHound and iFlyTek, and in September 2025 launched a restructuring plan targeting a reduction in force and an office closure expected to complete by the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
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Beyond the OEM/supplier revenue split, Cerence's design-win model concentrates revenue geographically rather than by single customer: Europe and Asia's combined 84% share of fiscal 2025 revenue leaves results exposed to regional automotive production cycles and currency movements more than to any one named account. On June 28, 2026, board member Marcy Klevorn resigned for personal reasons effective July 1, 2026, with no disagreement over accounting practices cited, a routine governance change layered atop the ongoing restructuring.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Cerence Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Cerence Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 12 Information Technology Stocks Moving In Tuesday's After-Market Session — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-25T09:22:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicEurope42%10-K Item 1: 'Our revenue base is geographically diverse. In fiscal year 2025, approximately 16%, 42% and 42% of our revenue came from the Americas, Europe and Asia, respectively.'
- MEDIUMGeographicAsia42%10-K Item 1: 'Our revenue base is geographically diverse. In fiscal year 2025, approximately 16%, 42% and 42% of our revenue came from the Americas, Europe and Asia, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-02Item 5.02LOWBoard member Marcy Klevorn resigned effective July 1, 2026, for personal reasons; no disagreement with the company on accounting practices or operations was cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $9.14 (+8.6%), stop $8.12 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.14 (+8.2% upside). Target $9.14 (+8.6%), stop $8.12 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $8.12.
Market cap $398M below $400M minimum.
Cerence Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover CRNC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Cerence Inc. do?Cerence builds conversational and audio AI software for automotive voice assistants, licensed to nearly all major...
Cerence builds conversational and audio AI software for automotive voice assistants, licensed to nearly all major automakers and tier-one suppliers on a white-label, per-vehicle basis. The company generated $251.8 million in revenue in fiscal 2025, down 24% from $331.5 million in fiscal 2024, with its technology shipped in more than 525 million vehicles to date and an estimated $1,169.2 million five-year revenue backlog as of September 30, 2025.