Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc (CNTA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the CNTA stock price target?

Take-profit $39.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $39.05.

Q: What are the risks of investing in CNTA?

Concentration risk — Product: orexin program; Target reached (-1.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Target reached (-1.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Q: Is CNTA overvalued or undervalued?

Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about CNTA?

19 analysts cover CNTA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $45.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

$39.42-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#144 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $39.05Target $39.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1

Analyst target$44.57+13.1%7 analysts

$39.02our TP

$39.42price

$44.57mean

$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.42: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 17.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: orexin program

Target reached (-1.7% upside)

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-20.8

Mkt Cap$6.1B

EV/EBITDA-28.6

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-42.6%

Rev Growth—

Beta1.26

DividendNone

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C17.33bearish

IV42%normal

Max Pain$20-49.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductorexin program
10-K Item 1A: 'A large proportion of our value may at any time reside in a limited number of our programs and/or developmental assets or product candidates, as we believe is currently the case in light of our focus on our orexin program.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
Advisory Agreement and Separation Agreement entered with Dr. Saurabh Saha (former CEO who stepped down Jan 1, 2026). Advisory fee $376/hour for initial 6-month period. Equity due prior to Feb 2, 2026 retained; remaining forfeited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.015%0.60

Quality3.215%0.48

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.510%0.25

Sentiment5.610%0.56

Insider Activity3.410%0.34

Peer Rank3.310%0.33

Technical Setup7.85%0.39

Risk Profile6.75%0.34

Catalyst1.95%0.10

Overall (Σ contributions)4.13

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

1.1

Erm

1.5

Earnings Timing

5.0

Estimates down -6.2% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 14 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Rsi

5.5

Ma Position

6.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Current Ratio

5.0

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

5.6

Gross Margin

10.0

Cash-burning: FCF -924% of revenueNo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

3.1

Value Rank

5.0

Growth Rank

5.0

GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

47 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.16Resistance $39.82

Price Targets

$39

A.Upside-1.0%

A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.7% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap)

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-14 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CNTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.42: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 17.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.05. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $39.05. Stop-loss: $39.05.

What are the risks of investing in CNTA?

Concentration risk — Product: orexin program; Target reached (-1.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is CNTA overvalued or undervalued?

Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNTA?

19 analysts cover CNTA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc do?Centessa Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotech developing orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) agonists for sleep-wake and...

Centessa Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotech developing orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) agonists for sleep-wake and neurological disorders. Lead candidate cleminorexton is in late-stage development for narcolepsy type 1, narcolepsy type 2, and idiopathic hypersomnia with NDAs submitted or planned for 2025-2026. On March 31, 2026, Eli Lilly agreed to acquire Centessa at $38.00/share plus CVRs, expected to close Q3 2026.