CNO's balance-sheet quality stands out — free cash flow runs at 418% of net income with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — but the most recent quarter delivered a -57.91% earnings miss after three strong consecutive beats, the stock is overbought at RSI 75 and has already traded past its analyst target, and a high-severity reinsurance counterparty concentration adds tail risk that is difficult to underwrite at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Reinsurance Counterparty Concentration→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Near Perfect Quality↓Deteriorating
- Sharp Earnings Miss Breaks Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Life
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.73 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-7 reinsurers.
CNO Financial Group markets health insurance, annuities and individual life insurance to middle-income pre-retirees and retirees across all 50 states through three brands: Bankers Life, Washington National and Colonial Penn. The company collected $4.6 billion in premiums in 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.73 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-7 reinsurers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — CNO Financial Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CNO Financial Group (CNO) Reports Strong Q3 Earnings, Raises Ful - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS CNO Financial Group, Inc. Raises Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cno Financial Group, Inc. Raises Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS CNO Financial Group (NYSE:CNO) posts better-than-expected sales in Q3 2026 - StockStory — StockStory Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS CNO Financial Group (NYSE:CNO) posts better-than-expected sales in Q3 2026 - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductfixed indexed annuities38%10-K Item 1: 'Fixed Indexed Annuities. These products accounted for $1,739.9 million, or 38 percent, of our total premium collections during 2025.'
- LOWGeographicFlorida12%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to residents of the following states accounted for at least 5 percent of our 2025 collected premiums: Florida (12 percent)'
- HIGHcounterpartytop-7 reinsurers10-K Item 1A: 'Our seven largest reinsurers...accounted for 97 percent of our ceded life insurance inforce and 99 percent of our reinsurance receivables.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.73 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-7 reinsurers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $55.19. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $48.24 reached (−16.4% from $57.73); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $55.19. Stop-loss: $55.19.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-7 reinsurers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away).
CNO Financial Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts rate CNO, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $57.
What does CNO Financial Group, Inc. do?CNO Financial Group markets health insurance, annuities and individual life insurance to middle-income pre-retirees and...
CNO Financial Group markets health insurance, annuities and individual life insurance to middle-income pre-retirees and retirees across all 50 states through three brands: Bankers Life, Washington National and Colonial Penn. The company collected $4.6 billion in premiums in 2025 with $38.8 billion in total assets, earning spread income primarily on fixed indexed annuities, which accounted for 38% of total premium collections.