Commercial Bancgroup screens cheap on a PEG basis with strong margins and Piotroski quality, and insiders have been buying, but an overbought RSI reading and the engine's negative asymmetry gate argue for caution at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Margin Quality→Stable
- Cheap Valuation Strong Peg↑Improving
- Overbought Momentum Caution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. (CBK) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Wait for pullback to $31.07. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.11. Engine's entry $31.07 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (79.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans (59.0%).
Commercial Bancgroup is a Tennessee-based bank holding company that completed its initial public offering in October 2025 and merged with Alliance Bank during the period, funding growth primarily through core deposits equal to 91.6% of total deposits. The bank's loan book is... Read more
Wait for pullback to $31.07. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.11. Engine's entry $31.07 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (79.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Commercial Bancgroup Ord Shs (CBK) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: CBK to Report Financial Results Post-market on July 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- NEWS CBK seeks powers to enforce Anti-Money Laundering compliance - standardmedia.co.ke — standardmedia.co.ke neutral
- NEWS CBK Approves LemFi Remittance to Kenya, in Partnership with Wapi Pay - The Kenyan Wallstreet — The Kenyan Wallstreet neutral
- NEWS UniCredit (UCG) Beats Profit, Raises Goals as CEO Pursues Commerzbank (CBK) - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg.com positive
Generated 2026-07-25T13:12:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial loans79%10-K Item 1A: 'At December 31, 2025, our commercial loans accounted for approximately 79.1% of our total loans.'
- HIGHloan_portfolioCRE loans59%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, approximately 59% of our loan portfolio consisted of CRE loans.'
- LOWloan_portfolioowner-occupied CRE loans25%10-K Item 1A: 'Additionally, approximately 24.8% of our CRE loans at December 31, 2025 were owner-occupied CRE loans, which are loans to businesses secured by the businesses' real estate.'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliohotels/motels category10-K Item 1A: 'the hotels/motels category (which has occasionally exceeded our internal limit of 50% of total risk-based capital), and loans within certain geographic markets makes us vulnerable to adverse conditions in these specific industries and markets.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $31.07. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.11. Engine's entry $31.07 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (79.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $33.77 (+2.0%), stop $29.51 (−12.2%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $33.77 (-12.7% upside). Target $33.77 (+2.0%), stop $29.51 (−12.2%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Stop-loss: $29.51.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (79.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE loans (59.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
5 analysts cover CBK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. do?Commercial Bancgroup is a Tennessee-based bank holding company that completed its initial public offering in October...
Commercial Bancgroup is a Tennessee-based bank holding company that completed its initial public offering in October 2025 and merged with Alliance Bank during the period, funding growth primarily through core deposits equal to 91.6% of total deposits. The bank's loan book is concentrated in commercial lending, with commercial loans comprising approximately 79.1% of total loans and commercial real estate loans comprising approximately 59% of the loan portfolio at December 31, 2025, alongside a hotel/motel industry concentration that has occasionally exceeded the bank's internal risk-based capit