Value
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.66
- ▸Attractively valued
CBK · Why this verdict
Why Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Commercial Bancgroup screens cheap on a PEG basis with strong margins and Piotroski quality, and insiders have been buying, but an overbought RSI reading and the engine's negative asymmetry gate argue for caution at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 42% and the Piotroski F-Score sits at a strong 8 out of 9, reflecting a fundamentally sound quality profile despite the engine noting no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher and margins should stay above 35% over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong margins in a regional bank can compress quickly if net interest margin pressure or credit costs rise, since the business itself has no structural moat to defend them. | ||
The stock trades at a 10.6x forward P/E with a 0.80 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | PEG should stay below 1.0 and forward P/E below 12x if the valuation gap persists as a durable buy signal over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA sub-1.0 PEG for a small regional bank can also reflect the market pricing in credit-cycle risk that a simple earnings multiple doesn't capture. | ||
RSI at 80 signals an overbought bear-rally condition alongside falling on-balance volume, a combination that softened the momentum score to 5.0 and triggered the engine's soft momentum warning. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool into the 50-70 range without a price breakdown of more than 10% if the rally has genuine follow-through. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought conditions in a low-float regional bank can persist for weeks without a meaningful pullback, especially amid a broader sector rally. | ||
Insiders bought $95,760 with zero sells in the past 90 days, producing a bullish insider signal. Insider | Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA single modest insider purchase of under $100,000 is not a strong conviction signal on its own and could reflect routine compensation-linked buying. | ||
Margins are strong at 42% and the Piotroski F-Score sits at a strong 8 out of 9, reflecting a fundamentally sound quality profile despite the engine noting no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher and margins should stay above 35% over the next 4 quarters.
CounterStrong margins in a regional bank can compress quickly if net interest margin pressure or credit costs rise, since the business itself has no structural moat to defend them.
The stock trades at a 10.6x forward P/E with a 0.80 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup relative to its earnings growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG should stay below 1.0 and forward P/E below 12x if the valuation gap persists as a durable buy signal over the next 12 months.
CounterA sub-1.0 PEG for a small regional bank can also reflect the market pricing in credit-cycle risk that a simple earnings multiple doesn't capture.
RSI at 80 signals an overbought bear-rally condition alongside falling on-balance volume, a combination that softened the momentum score to 5.0 and triggered the engine's soft momentum warning.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool into the 50-70 range without a price breakdown of more than 10% if the rally has genuine follow-through.
CounterOverbought conditions in a low-float regional bank can persist for weeks without a meaningful pullback, especially amid a broader sector rally.
Insiders bought $95,760 with zero sells in the past 90 days, producing a bullish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters.
CounterA single modest insider purchase of under $100,000 is not a strong conviction signal on its own and could reflect routine compensation-linked buying.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 42%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $95,760 (0.021% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.35
Upside
-11.9%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Momentum at 2.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Insider at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Growth at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x or PEG exceeds 1.5.
- P2Best In Class Margin Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9.
- P3Overbought Momentum Caution
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% within the next 2 months while RSI remains above 70.
- P4Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $100,000 over the next 90 days.