Calix pairs 21% growth, a wide moat and a Piotroski score of 9/9 with a forward P/E near 16x and 47% analyst upside, but earnings arrive in 1 day and the stock is in a downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth Wide Moat↓Deteriorating
- Cheap Vs Growth↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Calix, Inc (CALX) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source chipset and ASIC suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Calix develops broadband platform software, agentic AI cloud services, access-edge hardware, and SmartLife managed services for ~1,600 active communication service providers, primarily in North America. Revenue flows from hardware and platform software sales to small and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source chipset and ASIC suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Calix, Inc
About Calix, Inc
Calix served approximately 1,600 active service provider customers as of December 31, 2025, averaging 80 new customer additions per year over the prior five years, with its platform increasingly deployed by service providers targeting more than $40 billion in U.S. federal broadband funding programs. International sales represented 7% of 2025 revenue, predominantly in the Americas and Europe. The company employed 1,921 people globally, with 875 outside the United States, primarily in Canada, China, and India.
Calix generates revenue from sales of hardware appliances—Access Edge network systems and Experience Edge premises Wi-Fi appliances including the GigaSpire and GigaPro families—and cloud software subscriptions across three SaaS modules: Calix Engagement Cloud, Calix Operations Cloud, and Calix Service Cloud. SmartLife managed services (SmartHome, SmartTown, SmartBiz, and SmartMDU) attach recurring revenue streams to deployed premises hardware. The company relies entirely on contract manufacturers and original design manufacturers, largely based in Asia, for hardware production, with no internal manufacturing capability. Key components including chipsets, application-specific integrated circuit processors, and memory are sourced from sole-source or limited-source suppliers, including certain components sourced solely from China. The majority of revenue is non-recurring, and customers have no committed purchase requirements. Competitors include ADTRAN Holdings, Nokia, CommScope, Huawei, Plume Design, and Ubiquiti, among others.
Show full overview
Calix's hardware production depends entirely on third-party manufacturers—primarily in Asia—with sole-sourced components (certain chipsets, ASIC processors, and memory) creating discrete points of failure. The technology sector is currently experiencing memory component supply constraints driven by reallocation of manufacturing capacity toward global AI infrastructure; the company notes these constraints have elevated costs and extended lead times and may persist for years until new manufacturing capacity is built. Any prolonged disruption to a sole-sourced component could impair the company's ability to fulfill orders across its approximately 1,600 active service provider customers.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Calix, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Calix, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight Rating on Calix, Lowers Price Target to $50 — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Calix, Lowers Price Target to $50 — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Calix Releases Universal Communications Language Model on Hugging Face While Calix Gems Will Bring Right-Sized, Speciali — www.marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Calix, Inc. Releases Universal Communications Language Model on Hugging Face and Plans to Introduce Calix Gems Specializ — www.marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Calix, Inc. Grows BBT Small Business ARPU 13% With SmartBiz On The Calix One Platform - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 7, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersole-source chipset and ASIC suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent upon sole-source or limited-source suppliers for some key product components such as chipsets... and memory and resistor components'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source chipset and ASIC suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $31.57. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $54.23 (+60.2% upside). Prior stop was $31.57. Stop-loss: $31.57.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source chipset and ASIC suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
Calix, Inc trades at a P/E of 49.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate CALX, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $62.
What does Calix, Inc do?Calix develops broadband platform software, agentic AI cloud services, access-edge hardware, and SmartLife managed...
Calix develops broadband platform software, agentic AI cloud services, access-edge hardware, and SmartLife managed services for ~1,600 active communication service providers, primarily in North America. Revenue flows from hardware and platform software sales to small and mid-sized CSPs, with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue in 2025. The company employed 1,921 people globally as of December 31, 2025.