Calix, Inc (CALX) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.15: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.29; Negative price momentum.
Calix develops a cloud, software, and AI-powered managed services platform enabling broadband communication service providers to simplify operations and offer subscriber experience services. Revenue comes from hardware appliances, cloud subscriptions, and managed services sold... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.15: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.29; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersole-source or limited-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent upon sole-source or limited-source suppliers ... including certain components sourced solely through suppliers located in China and other Asian countries'
- MEDIUMCustomerconcentrated customer base10-K Item 1A: 'Historically, our customer base has been concentrated, and the loss of any of our key customers may adversely impact our revenue and results of operations'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Volatile — 5.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.15: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.29; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $39.53. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $57.42 (+36.2% upside). Prior stop was $39.53. Stop-loss: $39.53.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers; Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).
Calix, Inc trades at a P/E of 85.1 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover CALX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $66.
What does Calix, Inc do?Calix develops a cloud, software, and AI-powered managed services platform enabling broadband communication service...
Calix develops a cloud, software, and AI-powered managed services platform enabling broadband communication service providers to simplify operations and offer subscriber experience services. Revenue comes from hardware appliances, cloud subscriptions, and managed services sold to regional and smaller broadband operators; the company does not manufacture hardware internally and relies on third-party contract manufacturers.