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Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market.

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund is an externally managed BDC investing primarily in first lien senior secured and unitranche loans to U.S. private companies, targeting at least 80% of total assets in secured debt investments. Revenue is interest income on a floating-rate... Read more

$24.68-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#68 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $23.52Target $24.53(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$26.48+7.3%10 analysts
$24.53our TP
$24.68price
$26.48mean
$24
$30

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn39.7%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta0.44
Dividend12.87%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$18-29.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliomedium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market
    10-K Item 1A: 'Price declines in the medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market may adversely affect the fair value of our portfolio, reducing our NAV through increased net unrealized depreciation.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.4
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
6.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Earnings Growth
4.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.9
Quality Rank
5.5
Value Rank
6.4
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.47Resistance $25.03

Price Targets

$24
$25
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BXSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $23.52. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BXSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.53 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $23.52. Stop-loss: $23.52.

What are the risks of investing in BXSL?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: medium and large-sized U.S. corporate debt market; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is BXSL overvalued or undervalued?

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BXSL?

17 analysts cover BXSL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Blackstone Secured Lending Fund do?Blackstone Secured Lending Fund is an externally managed BDC investing primarily in first lien senior secured and...

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund is an externally managed BDC investing primarily in first lien senior secured and unitranche loans to U.S. private companies, targeting at least 80% of total assets in secured debt investments. Revenue is interest income on a floating-rate portfolio managed by affiliates of Blackstone Credit & Insurance.

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