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Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

Burford Capital is a global legal finance provider offering non-recourse capital to businesses and law firms engaged in large, complex litigation, managing a group-wide portfolio of $7.5B. Revenue comes from returns on resolved litigation matters, which are inherently volatile... Read more

$4.27+76.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#32 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-115.76%
IncomeYield2.86%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout44.64%sustainable
Stop $4.06Target $7.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst target$8.67+103.1%6 analysts
$7.55our TP
$4.27price
$8.67mean
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val9.6Qual2.4Grw10.0Mom2.0Sent7.3Ins5.0Peer2.5Tech6.2Risk5.55.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Burford Capital Limited

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$957M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-68.4%
Rev Growth—
Beta1.08
Dividend2.86%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerprivate funds with a single investor
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our AUM is attributable to private funds with a single investor.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Aviva Will, President, will cease serving as President and instead serve as Vice Chair effective March 11, 2026; she will no longer be an executive officer. Receives $1M annual salary and retention payments. No replacement named for President role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
5.0
Operating Margin
10.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.19Resistance $5.54

Price Targets

$4
$8
A.Upside+76.8%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BUR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $7.55 (+76.8%), stop $4.06 (−5.2%), A.R:R 5.6:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.55 (+76.8% upside). Target $7.55 (+76.8%), stop $4.06 (−5.2%), A.R:R 5.6:1. Stop-loss: $4.06.

What are the risks of investing in BUR?

Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

Is BUR overvalued or undervalued?

Burford Capital Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BUR?

12 analysts cover BUR with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Burford Capital Limited do?Burford Capital is a global legal finance provider offering non-recourse capital to businesses and law firms engaged in...

Burford Capital is a global legal finance provider offering non-recourse capital to businesses and law firms engaged in large, complex litigation, managing a group-wide portfolio of $7.5B. Revenue comes from returns on resolved litigation matters, which are inherently volatile and period-to-period unpredictable. Since inception in 2009, Burford has made commitments exceeding $12.1B.

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