Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BUR stock price target?

Take-profit $7.77 (+60.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.50.

Q: What are the risks of investing in BUR?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings estimates trending DOWN; NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING; EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d.

Q: Is BUR overvalued or undervalued?

Burford Capital Limited trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 4.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BUR?

13 analysts cover BUR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $9.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.84: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Burford Capital is a global legal finance provider offering non-recourse capital to businesses and law firms engaged in large, complex litigation, managing a group-wide portfolio of $7.5B. Revenue comes from returns on resolved litigation matters, which are inherently volatile... Read more

$4.84+60.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#20 of 109 Asset Management

Stop $4.50Target $7.77(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.0:1

Analyst target$8.94+84.6%6 analysts

$7.77our TP

$4.84price

$8.94mean

$23

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.84: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Analyst upside: 61%

Risks

Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3

P/E (Fwd)4.9

Mkt Cap$1.1B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn16.3%

ROE2.3%

Rev Growth-75.3%

Beta1.24

Dividend2.58%

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

IV87%elevated

Max Pain$18+261.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomerprivate funds with a single investor
10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our AUM is attributable to private funds with a single investor.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
Aviva Will, President, will cease serving as President and instead serve as Vice Chair effective March 11, 2026; she will no longer be an executive officer. Receives $1M annual salary and retention payments. No replacement named for President role.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.915%1.33

Quality5.215%0.78

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum5.510%0.55

Sentiment7.210%0.72

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.010%0.20

Technical Setup2.75%0.14

Risk Profile5.45%0.27

Catalyst3.75%0.19

Overall (Σ contributions)6.17

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.0

Quality Rank

2.2

Value Rank

5.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Support Resistance

2.0

Bollinger

2.7

Gap

6.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Erm

3.5

Earnings Timing

5.0

Dividend

10.0

Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 5 daysDividend: 258.0%

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

60 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.02Resistance $5.04

Price Targets

A.Upside+60.5%

A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BUR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.84: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $4.50. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.77 (+60.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.50. Stop-loss: $4.50.

What are the risks of investing in BUR?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is BUR overvalued or undervalued?

Burford Capital Limited trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 4.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BUR?

13 analysts cover BUR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Burford Capital Limited do?Burford Capital is a global legal finance provider offering non-recourse capital to businesses and law firms engaged in...