Value
9.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BUR · Why this verdict
Why Burford Capital (BUR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BUR looks deeply cheap, with a 5.4x forward P/E and 115% upside to the analyst target, but quality is below the floor, revenue is declining 37% and earnings missed in 3 of 4 quarters, so the engine produces a SELL output.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Quality stays below 4/10 and free cash flow stays negative. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores 10/10 and the current ratio scores 7.0, so core operating profit and liquidity are not weak. | ||
At $3.40 the price sits 115.1% below the $7.31 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 5.4x and PEG of 0.05. Upside pct | Price re-rates toward the $7.31 target if earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the stock is 72% off its 52-week high, which may reflect real deterioration. | ||
Revenue is declining 37% and the peer growth rank is only 0.3/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue remains below its year-ago level over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue for a litigation-finance model is lumpy by case resolution, and earnings growth scores 10/10, so a single period decline may not signal a trend. | ||
Earnings missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.01 actual vs $0.18 estimate on 2026-08-05, with the next report due 2026-11-04. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly results continue to miss estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 2026-05-08 quarter beat by 130% ($0.57 vs -$1.90), so results are volatile in both directions rather than steadily negative. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a -13.6%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, even though OBV is rising and institutions are accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average until a reversal is confirmed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising OBV and institutional accumulation suggest buyers are absorbing the selling, and MACD is improving. | ||
Quality is 2.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality stays below 4/10 and free cash flow stays negative.
CounterOperating margin scores 10/10 and the current ratio scores 7.0, so core operating profit and liquidity are not weak.
At $3.40 the price sits 115.1% below the $7.31 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 5.4x and PEG of 0.05.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price re-rates toward the $7.31 target if earnings stabilize.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the stock is 72% off its 52-week high, which may reflect real deterioration.
Revenue is declining 37% and the peer growth rank is only 0.3/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue remains below its year-ago level over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue for a litigation-finance model is lumpy by case resolution, and earnings growth scores 10/10, so a single period decline may not signal a trend.
Earnings missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.01 actual vs $0.18 estimate on 2026-08-05, with the next report due 2026-11-04.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly results continue to miss estimates.
CounterThe 2026-05-08 quarter beat by 130% ($0.57 vs -$1.90), so results are volatile in both directions rather than steadily negative.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a -13.6%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, even though OBV is rising and institutions are accumulating.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average until a reversal is confirmed.
CounterRising OBV and institutional accumulation suggest buyers are absorbing the selling, and MACD is improving.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -37%
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 7.6 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 102%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
- ▸High IV: 149%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.05
Upside
+75.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -65% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 5.05.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Sentiment at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.2, Peer rank at 1.4, and Quality at 2.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Large Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.50, more than 35% below the current $7.31.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6/9 from current 3/9.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Downtrend With Accumulation
Trip ifPrice rises above its 200-day average with the 30-day slope above 0%.