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BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

BILL Holdings is a financial operations SaaS platform for SMBs providing accounts payable/receivable automation, spend management (BILL Divvy Card), and B2B payments. As of June 2025, ~493,800 businesses used the platform processing $330B in annual payment volume with 8.3... Read more

$37.77+30.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#42 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $35.04Target $49.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$54.57+44.5%21 analysts
$49.11our TP
$37.77price
$54.57mean
$84

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA-1473.0
Profit Mgn-1.6%
ROE-0.6%
Rev Growth14.4%
Beta1.32
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C4.34bearish
IV109%elevated
Max Pain$53+40.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    On March 11, 2026, CFO Rohini Jain additionally appointed as principal accounting officer with no additional compensation. Routine administrative role addition; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Alison Wagonfeld resigned from BILL Board of Directors effective February 6, 2026. Resignation not due to any disagreement with the Company. No successor named for board seat.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
4.4
Value Rank
7.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.1
Current Ratio
6.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 8%, FCF yield 3.3%)No competitive moatRule of 40: 22 (fail)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.44Resistance $40.81

Price Targets

$35
$49
A.Upside+30.0%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BILL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 3.4/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $35.04. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BILL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.11 (+30.3% upside). Prior stop was $35.04. Stop-loss: $35.04.

What are the risks of investing in BILL?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is BILL overvalued or undervalued?

BILL Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BILL?

31 analysts cover BILL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $55.

What does BILL Holdings, Inc. do?BILL Holdings is a financial operations SaaS platform for SMBs providing accounts payable/receivable automation, spend...

BILL Holdings is a financial operations SaaS platform for SMBs providing accounts payable/receivable automation, spend management (BILL Divvy Card), and B2B payments. As of June 2025, ~493,800 businesses used the platform processing $330B in annual payment volume with 8.3 million network members.

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