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BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

BILL Holdings is a financial operations platform for SMBs, automating accounts payable, receivable, and spend/expense management. As of June 30, 2025, approximately 493,800 businesses processed ~$330B in Total Payment Volume on the platform; revenue is earned from subscription... Read more

$38.50+31.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#55 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.37%
Stop $35.11Target $49.63(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$55.14+43.2%21 analysts
$49.63our TP
$38.50price
$55.14mean
$77

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — BILL Holdings, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 7, 2026 MEDIUM Item 2.05: BILL Holdings announced workforce reduction of up to 30% to improve organizational agility and efficiency. Estimated charges of $30M-$60M primarily in Q4 fiscal 2026 for severance, employee benefits, and stock-based compensation.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 31%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA106.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE0.0%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.73bearish
IV70%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 2.05MEDIUM
    BILL Holdings announced workforce reduction of up to 30% to improve organizational agility and efficiency. Estimated charges of $30M-$60M primarily in Q4 fiscal 2026 for severance, employee benefits, and stock-based compensation.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    CFO Rohini Jain additionally appointed as principal accounting officer effective March 11, 2026. No additional compensation for the expanded role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
4.2
Value Rank
7.8
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 99d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.05Resistance $43.57

Price Targets

$35
$50
A.Upside+28.9%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (99d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BILL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.11. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BILL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.63 (+31.5% upside). Prior stop was $35.11. Stop-loss: $35.11.

What are the risks of investing in BILL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is BILL overvalued or undervalued?

BILL Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BILL?

30 analysts cover BILL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $55.

What does BILL Holdings, Inc. do?BILL Holdings is a financial operations platform for SMBs, automating accounts payable, receivable, and spend/expense...

BILL Holdings is a financial operations platform for SMBs, automating accounts payable, receivable, and spend/expense management. As of June 30, 2025, approximately 493,800 businesses processed ~$330B in Total Payment Volume on the platform; revenue is earned from subscription fees, transaction fees, and interest on customer funds held.

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