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AZULAzul S.A.Sell5.2·$8.82-10.27%
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Azul S.A. (AZUL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.82: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is also involved in the cargo or postal; passenger charter; development of frequent-flyer programs; intellectual property owner; travel packages; funding: aircraft... Read more

$8.82+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#10 of 16 Airlines
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-89.19%
IncomeYield0.78%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $8.20Target $9.63(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.82: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)0.0
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn20.7%
ROE
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 78.0%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $7.83Resistance $9.83

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AZUL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.82: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.20. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AZUL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.63 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $8.20. Stop-loss: $8.20.

What are the risks of investing in AZUL?

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is AZUL overvalued or undervalued?

Azul S.A. trades at a P/E of 0.0 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AZUL?

11 analysts cover AZUL with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Azul S.A. do?Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is...

Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is also involved in the cargo or postal; passenger charter; development of frequent-flyer programs; intellectual property owner; travel packages; funding: aircraft financing; and provision of maintenance and hangarage services for aircraft, engines, parts and pieces, aircraft acquisition, and lease services. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated approximately 970 daily departures to 160 destinations through a network of 390 non-stop routes; with an operating fleet of 176 aircraft and a passenger contractual fleet of 227 aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Barueri, Brazil.

Related stocks: CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) · RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) · ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) · AAL (American Airlines Group, Inc.)
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