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Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $226.67: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.34; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Axsome Therapeutics is a CNS biopharmaceutical company commercializing AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (excessive daytime sleepiness), and SYMBRAVO (acute migraine, launched June 2025) in the U.S. Combined 2025 revenues were $638.5 million, up 66% year-over-year. Lead pipeline asset... Read more

$226.67+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#78 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.03%
Stop $210.80Target $243.25(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$270.28+19.2%21 analysts
$243.25our TP
$226.67price
$270.28mean
$200
$329

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $226.67: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.34; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val3.8Qual3.8Grw10.0Mom4.9Sent7.5Ins3.4Peer2.9Tech4.6Risk4.75.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)38.6
Mkt Cap$11.7B
EV/EBITDA-69.5
Profit Mgn-26.6%
ROE-349.4%
Rev Growth57.4%
Beta0.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.34bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$115-49.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
6.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.5
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
6.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 38.6xPEG: 0.15

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.2
Moat
5.8
Rule Of 40
9.1
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueRule of 40: 57 (pass)
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $180.00Resistance $235.91

Price Targets

$211
$243
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $226.67: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.34; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $210.80. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $243.25 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $210.80. Stop-loss: $210.80.

What are the risks of investing in AXSM?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AXSM overvalued or undervalued?

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 38.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXSM?

27 analysts cover AXSM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $270.

What does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. do?Axsome Therapeutics is a CNS biopharmaceutical company commercializing AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (excessive daytime...

Axsome Therapeutics is a CNS biopharmaceutical company commercializing AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (excessive daytime sleepiness), and SYMBRAVO (acute migraine, launched June 2025) in the U.S. Combined 2025 revenues were $638.5 million, up 66% year-over-year. Lead pipeline asset AXS-05 received FDA Priority Review for Alzheimer's disease agitation with PDUFA date April 30, 2026; AXS-12 for narcolepsy is in NDA preparation.

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