Axsome Therapeutics is growing revenue 46% YoY with analysts targeting 73.1% upside against 10.1% downside, but it is still burning cash, missed EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters and reports in 1 day. The stock is 44% off its high with RSI at 26, so it is a speculative biotech rebound candidate.
Thesis pillars
- Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
- Large Upside To Analyst Target→Stable
- Cash Burn And Earnings Misses→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $139.61: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Axsome Therapeutics markets three FDA-approved CNS medicines in the U.S. — AUVELITY for MDD (approved August 2022), SUNOSI for excessive daytime sleepiness (acquired 2022), and SYMBRAVO for acute migraine (approved January 2025) — which together generated $638.5 million in... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $139.61: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
About Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
Axsome Therapeutics generated $638.5 million in combined revenue from three FDA-approved CNS products in 2025, representing 66% growth year-over-year: AUVELITY (approved August 2022 for major depressive disorder), SUNOSI (acquired 2022 for excessive daytime sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnea or narcolepsy), and SYMBRAVO (approved January 2025 for acute migraine). The lead pipeline asset, AXS-05, received Priority Review designation from the FDA in December 2025 for Alzheimer's disease agitation, with a PDUFA target action date of April 30, 2026.
Axsome commercializes all three approved products directly in the United States through a focused sales and marketing organization, targeting approximately 21 million U.S. MDD patients, 22 million adults with obstructive sleep apnea or narcolepsy, and 39 million adults experiencing migraine. SUNOSI's ex-U.S. rights outside 12 Asian markets — retained by originator SK Biopharmaceuticals — are licensed to Pharmanovia under a 2023 agreement covering Europe and parts of the Middle East and North Africa. Manufacturing is outsourced to third-party contract manufacturers under non-exclusive commercial supply agreements with no material contractual obligations beyond ordered supply. The company carries a credit facility with Blackstone Alternative Credit Advisors providing up to $570.0 million in term and revolving credit — closed May 8, 2025, bearing interest at SOFR plus 4.75% and maturing May 8, 2030.
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The primary near-term binary risk is the FDA decision on AXS-05 for Alzheimer's disease agitation. The FDA granted Priority Review and Breakthrough Therapy designation for this indication. Across four Phase 3 trials, three met their primary endpoint and one did not, providing mixed but largely positive efficacy data. If the FDA declines approval, the commercial trajectory of the company's self-described lead product candidate could be materially disrupted. A parallel setback illustrates pipeline-wide regulatory exposure: the AXS-14 fibromyalgia NDA received a Refusal to File letter in 2025 because one pivotal trial used an endpoint structure the FDA deemed inadequate, with the FORWARD Phase 3 trial now underway to address the deficiency.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Adjust Price Targets for Axsome Therapeutics Following Q3 Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Axsome Therapeutics, Raises Price Target to $249 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on Axsome Therapeutics, Lowers Price Target to $239 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Axsome Therapeutics, Lowers Price Target to $273 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Guggenheim Maintains Buy on Axsome Therapeutics, Lowers Price Target to $250 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:44:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMpipelineAXS-05 for Alzheimer's disease agitation10-K Item 1: 'Our lead product candidate, AXS-05 (dextromethorphan and bupropion), is currently being developed for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (AD) agitation'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $139.61: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $129.84. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $247.97 (+77.6% upside). Prior stop was $129.84. Stop-loss: $129.84.
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
29 analysts rate AXSM, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $276.
What does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. do?Axsome Therapeutics markets three FDA-approved CNS medicines in the U.S. — AUVELITY for MDD (approved August 2022),...
Axsome Therapeutics markets three FDA-approved CNS medicines in the U.S. — AUVELITY for MDD (approved August 2022), SUNOSI for excessive daytime sleepiness (acquired 2022), and SYMBRAVO for acute migraine (approved January 2025) — which together generated $638.5 million in revenue for 2025, representing 66% annual growth. The pipeline is anchored by AXS-05 for Alzheimer's disease agitation, with Priority Review designation and a PDUFA target date of April 30, 2026.