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Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $184.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.

Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved commercial products: AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (EDS), and SYMBRAVO (migraine), generating $638.5M in 2025 revenues (66% annual growth). The pipeline is led by... Read more

$184.37+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#56 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $171.99Target $201.51(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$223.90+21.4%21 analysts
$201.51our TP
$184.37price
$223.90mean
$260

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $184.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)32.3
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA-58.1
Profit Mgn-28.7%
ROE-252.1%
Rev Growth65.0%
Beta0.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV101%elevated
Max Pain$100-45.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the success of our products ... Apart from AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO, we have no other products which have received regulatory approval.'
  • MEDIUMpipelineAXS-05 for AD agitation
    10-K Item 1A: 'Breakthrough Therapy designation by the FDA for AXS-05 for the treatment of AD agitation'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
7.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.1
Forward Pe
3.5
Analyst Target
6.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 32.3xPEG: 0.13
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $165.17Resistance $193.49

Price Targets

$172
$202
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $184.37: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $171.99. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $201.51 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $171.99. Stop-loss: $171.99.

What are the risks of investing in AXSM?

Concentration risk — Product: AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO; Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is AXSM overvalued or undervalued?

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXSM?

26 analysts cover AXSM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. do?Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved...

Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved commercial products: AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (EDS), and SYMBRAVO (migraine), generating $638.5M in 2025 revenues (66% annual growth). The pipeline is led by AXS-05 for Alzheimer's disease agitation, with FDA Priority Review and a PDUFA date of April 30, 2026.

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