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ATAIAtaiBeckley Inc.Sell4.1·$4.96-4.43%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AtaiBeckley carries the lowest business quality in its peer set — free cash flow burning at over 1,500% of revenue, a 39% revenue contraction, and a near-perfect record of earnings misses — while trading in a confirmed downtrend with heavily bearish options positioning; fundamental and technical conditions need to improve materially before the setup warrants consideration.

Thesis pillars

  • Catastrophic Quality Cash BurnStable
  • Revenue In Sharp ContractionStable
  • Chronic Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AtaiBeckley Inc. (ATAI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.96: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.25; Below-average business quality.

AtaiBeckley is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advancing a diversified pipeline of psychedelic and non-psychedelic mental health treatments, led by in-house candidates VLS-01 (DMT) for treatment-resistant depression and EMP-01 (R-MDMA) for social anxiety disorder,... Read more

$4.96+145.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#234 of 253 Biotechnology
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-2.91%
Stop $4.61Target $12.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 9.7:1
Analyst target$14.00+182.3%12 analysts
$12.18our TP
$4.96price
$14.00mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.96: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.25; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.4
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA-13.8
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-378.0%
Rev Growth-38.7%
Beta1.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C3.25bearish
IV122%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -38.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -39%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
2.5
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1592% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
2.1
Value Rank
5.0

Volatile — 8.1% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
2.4
Beta
4.8
Days To Cover
6.0
Short Interest
6.2
Elevated put/call: 3.25High IV: 122%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 9.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Speculative
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.67Resistance $5.52

Price Targets

$5
$12
A.Upside+145.6%
A.R:R9.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.96: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.25; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $4.61. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.18 (+145.6% upside). Prior stop was $4.61. Stop-loss: $4.61.

What are the risks of investing in ATAI?

Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0).

Is ATAI overvalued or undervalued?

AtaiBeckley Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATAI?

20 analysts cover ATAI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does AtaiBeckley Inc. do?AtaiBeckley is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advancing a diversified pipeline of psychedelic and...

AtaiBeckley is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advancing a diversified pipeline of psychedelic and non-psychedelic mental health treatments, led by in-house candidates VLS-01 (DMT) for treatment-resistant depression and EMP-01 (R-MDMA) for social anxiety disorder, alongside a roughly one-third stake in Beckley Psytech (BPL-003, ELE-101) and a 51.9% stake in Recognify Life Sciences (RL-007 for cognitive impairment in schizophrenia). The company has no approved products and reported a $149.3 million net loss for 2024 against $17.5 million of cash as of December 31, 2024.

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