Skip to main content

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.16: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.03; Below-average business quality.

AST SpaceMobile is building the first global cellular broadband network in space, accessible by standard smartphones via LEO satellites using low- and mid-band spectrum. Revenue will come from a revenue-sharing model with 50+ MNO partners representing ~3 billion subscribers... Read more

$72.16+3.8% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#20 of 21 Communication Equipment
Stop $67.33Target $75.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$86.40+19.7%8 analysts
$75.17our TP
$72.16price
$86.40mean
$41
$117

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.16: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.03; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: MNOs
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-462.3
Mkt Cap$27.1B
EV/EBITDA-88.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-30.1%
Rev Growth2731.3%
Beta2.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.03bearish
IV108%elevated
Max Pain$40-44.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMNOs
    10-K Item 1A: 'We will rely on MNOs and require regulatory approvals to access the spectrum we need to provide SCS service.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierthird parties for satellite components and launch services
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on third parties for the supply of equipment, satellite components and launch services.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+9.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
6.1
Cash-burning: FCF -1750% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 9.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.7
Short Interest
1.4
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Debt Equity
5.4
News Risk
6.0
Days To Cover
7.2
High short interest justified: 21%Elevated put/call: 2.03High IV: 108%Above max pain $40Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 11 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.49Resistance $104.15

Price Targets

$67
$75
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.16: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.03; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $67.33. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ASTS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.17 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $67.33. Stop-loss: $67.33.

What are the risks of investing in ASTS?

Concentration risk — Customer: MNOs; Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -462.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASTS?

18 analysts cover ASTS with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $86.

What does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. do?AST SpaceMobile is building the first global cellular broadband network in space, accessible by standard smartphones...

AST SpaceMobile is building the first global cellular broadband network in space, accessible by standard smartphones via LEO satellites using low- and mid-band spectrum. Revenue will come from a revenue-sharing model with 50+ MNO partners representing ~3 billion subscribers globally. No commercial revenue generated yet; service is in development.

Related stocks: VISN (Vistance Networks, Inc.) · UI (Ubiquiti Inc.) · BDC (Belden Inc) · VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) · ONDS (Ondas Inc)