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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellHigh Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.52: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network directly accessible by unmodified smartphones using large phased-array BlueBird satellites in LEO. Pre-commercial on its SpaceMobile Service; current revenue comes from U.S. government test contracts and MNO... Read more

$85.52+1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#20 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-4.19%
Stop $80.75Target $88.16(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$83.90-1.9%8 analysts
$88.16our TP
$85.52price
$83.90mean
$41
$117

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.52: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-15.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-292.2
Mkt Cap$33.7B
EV/EBITDA-83.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-37.8%
Rev Growth1952.2%
Beta2.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV128%elevated
Max Pain$40-53.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.2
52w Position
3.4
Gap
4.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
5.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1663% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $63.43Resistance $89.96

Price Targets

$81
$88
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $85.52: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $80.75. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the ASTS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.16 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $80.75. Stop-loss: $80.75.

What are the risks of investing in ASTS?

Target reached (-15.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -292.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASTS?

18 analysts cover ASTS with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $84.

What does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. do?AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network directly accessible by unmodified smartphones...

AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network directly accessible by unmodified smartphones using large phased-array BlueBird satellites in LEO. Pre-commercial on its SpaceMobile Service; current revenue comes from U.S. government test contracts and MNO gateway equipment sales. Commercial agreements signed with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and STC for initial service launch.

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