Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ASM · Why this verdict
Why Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Avino Silver & Gold is a high-quality, fast-growing precious-metals miner (38% margins, 23% YoY growth) trading 105.9% below its $8.94 analyst target, but earnings have missed repeatedly, the chart is in a confirmed downtrend and recent profits may reflect a commodity-price surge.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 8.3x with forward earnings only 0.52x trailing suggests earnings just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so forward estimates may rest on stale spot prices with mean-reversion risk unpriced. Bear case | Forward earnings estimates should hold up if metals prices stay near current levels through the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 8.3x forward multiple already discounts a cyclical peak, and a sustained precious-metals price could keep earnings elevated for longer than the market expects. | ||
Price is 105.9% below the $8.94 analyst target with only 13.1% downside to the stop (reward-to-risk 8.07), even though the stock is in a confirmed downtrend 64% off its high. Estimated upside | Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $3.83 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is 2.7/10 with RSI 28, a death cross and falling on-balance volume, and analyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale and the downtrend may continue. | ||
The business shows strong margins of 38%, a wide economic moat (score 9.0) and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.0/10. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 25% and the quality score above 7/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality carries a red flag, with free cash flow at only 47% of net income, so reported margins are not fully converting to cash. | ||
Growth is strong at 23% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, and the stock is valued at a forward P/E of 8.3x with a PEG of 0.04. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY and the forward P/E should remain below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy (from $39.4M in March 2026 down to $26.8M in June 2026), and growth confidence is only 0.67. | ||
Avino missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the fourth, with zero beats and an average surprise of -20.9%, with earnings due in 3 days. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the report on 2026-11-04 to break the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterEPS figures are only a few cents per share, so small dollar misses show up as large percentages, and revenue is trending up. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.3x with forward earnings only 0.52x trailing suggests earnings just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so forward estimates may rest on stale spot prices with mean-reversion risk unpriced.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates should hold up if metals prices stay near current levels through the next 12 months.
CounterThe 8.3x forward multiple already discounts a cyclical peak, and a sustained precious-metals price could keep earnings elevated for longer than the market expects.
Price is 105.9% below the $8.94 analyst target with only 13.1% downside to the stop (reward-to-risk 8.07), even though the stock is in a confirmed downtrend 64% off its high.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $3.83 stop.
CounterMomentum is 2.7/10 with RSI 28, a death cross and falling on-balance volume, and analyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale and the downtrend may continue.
The business shows strong margins of 38%, a wide economic moat (score 9.0) and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.0/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 25% and the quality score above 7/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality carries a red flag, with free cash flow at only 47% of net income, so reported margins are not fully converting to cash.
Growth is strong at 23% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, and the stock is valued at a forward P/E of 8.3x with a PEG of 0.04.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY and the forward P/E should remain below 12x.
CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy (from $39.4M in March 2026 down to $26.8M in June 2026), and growth confidence is only 0.67.
Avino missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the fourth, with zero beats and an average surprise of -20.9%, with earnings due in 3 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the report on 2026-11-04 to break the miss streak.
CounterEPS figures are only a few cents per share, so small dollar misses show up as large percentages, and revenue is trending up.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 47% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 122%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (7.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.2x,ratio=0.52x
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.0>=7.5+momentum=5.6>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
7.68
Upside
+88.5%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.3
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -60% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.0 and value 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 7.68 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Value at 8.3, and Quality at 8.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.68 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Quality Miner
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 30% from current 47%.
- P2Strong Yoy Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from current 23%.
- P3Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 8.3x.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Large Analyst Upside In Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below $3.83 from current $4.34.