Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
ASM · Why this verdict
Why Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The forward P/E of 8.4x sits well below the 12x sector threshold, and the ratio of forward-to-trailing earnings is 0.27x — both consistent with a commodities business whose earnings expanded sharply on a metals-price surge and whose forward estimates may be built on spot prices that are at risk of mean-reversion. Bear case | This risk resolves if consensus forward EPS estimates are revised upward by more than 25% over the next 2 quarters, bringing the forward P/E below 6x and confirming commodity tailwinds are more durable than the current ratio implies. | →Stable |
| CounterIf structural demand for silver and gold remains elevated — driven by industrial use or safe-haven flows — the elevated earnings base may prove sticky, and what appears as a cycle-peak profile may instead reflect a new earnings floor. | ||
Three of the last four quarters missed analyst estimates, with an average negative surprise of roughly 24% and a miss in the most recent quarter — creating doubt about whether management can forecast its own earnings in the current commodity environment. Earnings | The miss streak breaks when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a small-cap miner, EPS consensus is often set by a narrow analyst base with limited company access; if the analyst estimate base is small and unsophisticated, persistent misses may reflect poor consensus modeling rather than structural earnings shortfalls. | ||
At current prices, the setup offers roughly 6.7-to-1 reward to risk with 40.8% upside to the analyst consensus target, clearing the asymmetry threshold and making even a partial move toward fair value meaningful for a small initial position. Price targets | The stock maintains at least 25% upside to the analyst target over the next 6 months, preserving the favorable geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap mining stocks often embed commodity-price assumptions that may not hold; if spot prices decline and analysts revise targets downward, the stated 40.8% upside compresses rapidly — potentially below the threshold that justified entry. | ||
Revenue growth of 109% year-over-year places this company at the top of its industry peer group on growth metrics, indicating the business is capturing a disproportionate share of sector expansion — a profile that historically supports multiple re-rating. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the acceleration is structural rather than a one-quarter surge. | →Stable |
| CounterA 109% growth rate in a precious-metals mining business is almost certainly driven by elevated commodity prices rather than volume gains alone; if spot prices mean-revert, year-over-year comparisons will become sharply negative without any change in production or market share. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong 33% margins, and a quality assessment of 'high-quality business' indicate that the underlying operation is financially sound and well-managed relative to small-cap mining peers. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or above out of 9 for the next four quarters, confirming balance-sheet discipline is maintained through the commodity cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow represents only 41% of net income — below net income — flagging a quality concern; if the gap between reported earnings and cash generation widens further, the high-quality designation may not hold under closer scrutiny. | ||
The forward P/E of 8.4x sits well below the 12x sector threshold, and the ratio of forward-to-trailing earnings is 0.27x — both consistent with a commodities business whose earnings expanded sharply on a metals-price surge and whose forward estimates may be built on spot prices that are at risk of mean-reversion.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- This risk resolves if consensus forward EPS estimates are revised upward by more than 25% over the next 2 quarters, bringing the forward P/E below 6x and confirming commodity tailwinds are more durable than the current ratio implies.
CounterIf structural demand for silver and gold remains elevated — driven by industrial use or safe-haven flows — the elevated earnings base may prove sticky, and what appears as a cycle-peak profile may instead reflect a new earnings floor.
Three of the last four quarters missed analyst estimates, with an average negative surprise of roughly 24% and a miss in the most recent quarter — creating doubt about whether management can forecast its own earnings in the current commodity environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak breaks when EPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterIn a small-cap miner, EPS consensus is often set by a narrow analyst base with limited company access; if the analyst estimate base is small and unsophisticated, persistent misses may reflect poor consensus modeling rather than structural earnings shortfalls.
At current prices, the setup offers roughly 6.7-to-1 reward to risk with 40.8% upside to the analyst consensus target, clearing the asymmetry threshold and making even a partial move toward fair value meaningful for a small initial position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock maintains at least 25% upside to the analyst target over the next 6 months, preserving the favorable geometry.
CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap mining stocks often embed commodity-price assumptions that may not hold; if spot prices decline and analysts revise targets downward, the stated 40.8% upside compresses rapidly — potentially below the threshold that justified entry.
Revenue growth of 109% year-over-year places this company at the top of its industry peer group on growth metrics, indicating the business is capturing a disproportionate share of sector expansion — a profile that historically supports multiple re-rating.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the acceleration is structural rather than a one-quarter surge.
CounterA 109% growth rate in a precious-metals mining business is almost certainly driven by elevated commodity prices rather than volume gains alone; if spot prices mean-revert, year-over-year comparisons will become sharply negative without any change in production or market share.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong 33% margins, and a quality assessment of 'high-quality business' indicate that the underlying operation is financially sound and well-managed relative to small-cap mining peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or above out of 9 for the next four quarters, confirming balance-sheet discipline is maintained through the commodity cycle.
CounterFree cash flow represents only 41% of net income — below net income — flagging a quality concern; if the gap between reported earnings and cash generation widens further, the high-quality designation may not hold under closer scrutiny.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue growth of 109% year-over-year, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong 33% margins, and a risk/reward of roughly 6.7-to-1 to the analyst target justify a small initial position; the material offsets are earnings having missed consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average shortfall of 24%, free cash flow running at only 41% of net income, and a commodity-cycle peak flag suggesting forward earnings estimates may embed a precious-metals price surge that is at risk of mean-reversion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 8.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 109% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.2 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.06, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.1x,ratio=0.27x
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
3.07
Upside
+46.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.5 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 3.07 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.5, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.07 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the commodity-price tailwind is fading.
- P2High Quality Fundamentals
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifConsensus forward EPS is revised upward by more than 25% over any 2-quarter window, bringing the implied forward P/E below 6x from the current 8.4x and confirming earnings durability.
- P4Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS beats consensus for 2 consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise above 5%, breaking the recent miss streak.
- P5Favorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 20% from the current 40.8% due to stock appreciation or analyst target cuts.