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Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.91: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.91; Below-average business quality.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved products all under the ZORYVE brand (roflumilast): cream 0.3% for plaque psoriasis, foam for seborrheic dermatitis and scalp/body psoriasis, and creams 0.15% and... Read more

$22.91+32.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#18 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $21.47Target $30.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$34.75+51.7%8 analysts
$30.23our TP
$22.91price
$34.75mean
$36

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.91: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.91; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE
Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-352.9
Profit Mgn-4.3%
ROE-9.3%
Rev Growth81.5%
Beta1.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.91bearish
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$13-45.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductZORYVE
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is dependent on the successful commercialization of ZORYVE and the development, regulatory approval, and commercialization of our current product candidates.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
2.1
Short Interest
2.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
4.1
News Risk
6.0
Debt Equity
7.4
Elevated put/call: 3.91High IV: 86%Above max pain $12Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.13Resistance $25.47

Price Targets

$21
$30
A.Upside+32.0%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARQT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.91: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.91; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.47. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARQT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.23 (+32.2% upside). Prior stop was $21.47. Stop-loss: $21.47.

What are the risks of investing in ARQT?

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARQT?

14 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. do?Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved...

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved products all under the ZORYVE brand (roflumilast): cream 0.3% for plaque psoriasis, foam for seborrheic dermatitis and scalp/body psoriasis, and creams 0.15% and 0.05% for atopic dermatitis. Net loss was $16.1M in 2025 with $1.14B accumulated deficit. The Kowa co-promotion agreement was terminated January 2026.

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