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Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.50: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved ZORYVE products (roflumilast formulations) for plaque psoriasis, seborrheic dermatitis, and atopic dermatitis launched 2022–2025. Revenue comes from U.S.... Read more

$19.50+54.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#18 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.14%
Stop $18.72Target $30.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$34.63+77.6%8 analysts
$30.12our TP
$19.50price
$34.63mean
$36

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.50: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE
Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA438.6
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-1.4%
Rev Growth60.1%
Beta1.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductZORYVE
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business, including our ability to finance our company and generate any revenue in the future, will primarily depend on the successful commercialization of ZORYVE'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
1.0
Short Interest
2.8
Beta
4.7
Debt Equity
7.4
Elevated put/call: 2.67High IV: 74%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Vol Acceleration
2.8
Rsi
3.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.2x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.30Resistance $24.27

Price Targets

$19
$30
A.Upside+54.5%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARQT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.50: Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $18.72. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARQT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.12 (+54.5% upside). Prior stop was $18.72. Stop-loss: $18.72.

What are the risks of investing in ARQT?

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; Risk below floor (2.3 < 3.0).

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARQT?

14 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. do?Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four...

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved ZORYVE products (roflumilast formulations) for plaque psoriasis, seborrheic dermatitis, and atopic dermatitis launched 2022–2025. Revenue comes from U.S. prescription drug sales of ZORYVE, supplemented by licensing agreements with Huadong (Greater China/Southeast Asia) and Sato (Japan).

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