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Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $205.06: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Rich valuation.

Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers. The company is involved in the licensing, marketing, research, and development of microprocessors,... Read more

$205.06+13.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#37 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $190.74Target $232.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$170.84-16.7%36 analysts
$232.93our TP
$205.06price
$170.84mean
$95
$240

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $205.06: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-23.4% upside)
Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)268.9
P/E (Fwd)94.1
Mkt Cap$214.2B
EV/EBITDA194.8
Profit Mgn17.1%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth26.3%
Beta3.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV102%elevated
Max Pain$116-43.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
4.1
Forward P/E: 94.1xPEG: 2.43Expensive valuation

Volatile — 6.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
News Risk
3.5
Short Interest
4.3
Put Call
5.6
Days To Cover
9.0
High IV: 102%Above max pain $116

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
6.3
Growth Rank
6.5
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $137.58Resistance $237.68

Price Targets

$191
$233
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.4% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $205.06: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $190.74. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $232.93 (+13.6% upside). Prior stop was $190.74. Stop-loss: $190.74.

What are the risks of investing in ARM?

Target reached (-23.4% upside); Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).

Is ARM overvalued or undervalued?

Arm Holdings plc trades at a P/E of 268.9 (forward 94.1). TrendMatrix value score: 1.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARM?

45 analysts cover ARM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $171.

What does Arm Holdings plc do?Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for...

Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers. The company is involved in the licensing, marketing, research, and development of microprocessors, systems intellectual property (IPs), graphics processing units, physical IP and associated systems IPs, software, tools, and other related services. It also offers arm central processing units, accelerators, system IP products, and compute platform products, as well as development tools and software. The company's products are used in various markets, such as automotive, computing infrastructure, consumer technologies, and Internet of things. It operates in the United States, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, and internationally. Arm Holdings plc has a strategic collaboration with International Business Machines Corporation to develop dual-architecture hardware that helps enterprises run future AI and data intensive workloads. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.

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