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Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers. The company is involved in the licensing, marketing, research, and development of microprocessors,... Read more

$216.15+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#24 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.37%
Stop $200.06Target $234.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$229.00+5.9%36 analysts
$234.71our TP
$216.15price
$229.00mean
$125
$326

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Arm Holdings plc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)243.2
P/E (Fwd)68.5
Mkt Cap$222.5B
EV/EBITDA202.0
Profit Mgn17.1%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta3.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$105-51.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.5
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.1
Forward P/E: 68.5xPEG: 2.39Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
5.9
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $173.30Resistance $239.50

Price Targets

$200
$235
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $200.06. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ARM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $234.71 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $200.06. Stop-loss: $200.06.

What are the risks of investing in ARM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is ARM overvalued or undervalued?

Arm Holdings plc trades at a P/E of 243.2 (forward 68.5). TrendMatrix value score: 1.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARM?

45 analysts cover ARM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $229.

What does Arm Holdings plc do?Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for...

Arm Holdings plc architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit products and related technologies for semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers. The company is involved in the licensing, marketing, research, and development of microprocessors, systems intellectual property (IPs), graphics processing units, physical IP and associated systems IPs, software, tools, and other related services. It also offers arm central processing units, accelerators, system IP products, and compute platform products, as well as development tools and software. The company's products are used in various markets, such as automotive, computing infrastructure, consumer technologies, and Internet of things. It operates in the United States, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.

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