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APPNAppian CorporationSell5.3·$49.82
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Appian is a software company with a strong earnings beat record, 14% free cash flow margin and a breakout uptrend, but the price of $49.10 is far above the $30.28 analyst target, forward P/E is 34.5x and platform and AWS concentration are high.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
  • Platform And Aws Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Earnings Beat Record↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Appian Corporation (APPN) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.06; Below-average business quality.

Appian provides a process automation software platform for large enterprises and governments, generating $726.9 million in revenue in 2025. U.S. federal government agencies represented 25.3% of total revenue; approximately 38% of revenue came from customers outside the United... Read more

$49.82-32.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#75 of 99 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.06%
Stop $46.33Analyst target $33.76(reached)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst consensus$38.80-22.1%5 analysts with price targets
$49.82price
$38.80mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.06; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Appian Corporation

About Appian Corporation

Appian's process automation platform generated $726.9 million in revenue in 2025, up from $617.0 million in 2024 and $545.4 million in 2023. U.S. federal government agencies represented 25.3% of total revenue in 2025, rising from 21.3% in 2023, and approximately 38% of total revenue came from customers outside the United States. The number of customers paying over $1 million in annual recurring revenue grew from 115 at year-end 2024 to 140 at year-end 2025. As of December 31, 2025, Appian had 2,149 employees globally, with 1,383 based in the United States.

Appian sells its platform almost exclusively as subscriptions, targeting organizations with over 2,000 employees and $2 billion in annual revenue. Key industry verticals — financial services, government, life sciences, insurance, and manufacturing — collectively accounted for approximately 80% of subscriptions revenue in 2025. The go-to-market combines direct enterprise sales with a partner channel including Accenture, Capgemini, Deloitte, Indra Group, KPMG, and PwC. Applications built on the platform can only be used with an active Appian subscription, creating switching costs that support retention. Cloud deployments run on AWS, which the company relies upon exclusively to operate its cloud offering. No single customer accounted for more than 10% of total revenue in 2025. Appian held 28 granted patents at December 31, 2025, with none expiring before 2034, and the platform operates across 16 countries, 39 regions, and 123 availability zones.

Show full overview

Appian's U.S. federal government revenue (25.3% of total revenue in 2025) exposes the company to appropriations cycle risk: the United States has previously experienced lapses in federal appropriations, and changes in administration priorities may affect agency budgets and technology spending. Executive orders may impose new compliance requirements after contract signing. Separately, the company's cloud offering runs exclusively on AWS; any disruption to AWS services could adversely affect the company's ability to serve cloud subscribers and materially harm business results.

See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure

From Appian Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Appian Corporation

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:11Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Appian platform
Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS
Target reached (-32.2% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)35.0
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA92.6
Profit Mgn-1.3%
ROE—
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta0.81
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.06bearish
IV104%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. federal government agencies25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from U.S. federal government agencies represented 25.3%, 23.9%, and 21.3% of our total revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHProductAppian platform
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of our software platform account for substantially all of our subscriptions revenue and are the source of substantially all of our professional services revenue'
  • HIGHSupplierAWS
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely upon AWS to operate our cloud offering; any disruption of or interference with our use of AWS would adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition'
  • MEDIUMGeographiccustomers outside of the United States38%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 38% of our total revenue was generated from customers outside of the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Volatile — 6.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
4.0
Days To Cover
4.7
Beta
8.2
Elevated put/call: 5.06High IV: 104%Above max pain $10Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.06Resistance $54.12

Price Targets

A.Upside-32.2%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-32.2% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APPN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.82: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.06; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.33. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APPN stock price target?

Analyst target $33.76 reached (−32.2% from $49.82); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $46.33. Stop-loss: $46.33.

What are the risks of investing in APPN?

Concentration risk — Product: Appian platform; Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS; Target reached (-32.2% upside).

Is APPN overvalued or undervalued?

Appian Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 35.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APPN?

13 analysts rate APPN, with a consensus score of 2.7/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $39.

What does Appian Corporation do?Appian provides a process automation software platform for large enterprises and governments, generating $726.9 million...

Appian provides a process automation software platform for large enterprises and governments, generating $726.9 million in revenue in 2025. U.S. federal government agencies represented 25.3% of total revenue; approximately 38% of revenue came from customers outside the United States. The company had 2,149 employees as of December 31, 2025 and sells almost exclusively through subscriptions.

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