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Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.66: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality.

Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence industries in North America. It operates through: Data Center Hosting Business, and HPC Hosting Business. The company... Read more

$34.66+34.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 35 Information Technology Services
Stop $32.40Target $46.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$53.91+55.5%11 analysts
$46.90our TP
$34.66price
$53.91mean
$97

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.66: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-32.2
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA821.5
Profit Mgn-59.5%
ROE-5.6%
Rev Growth139.3%
Beta7.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV118%elevated
Max Pain$10-71.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
5.1
Current Ratio
8.1
Cash-burning: FCF -469% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
9.7
Industry growth leader

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.9
Support Resistance
2.3
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.5
GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.62Resistance $38.54

Price Targets

$32
$47
A.Upside+35.3%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.66: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $32.40. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.90 (+34.6% upside). Prior stop was $32.40. Stop-loss: $32.40.

What are the risks of investing in APLD?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is APLD overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -32.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APLD?

19 analysts cover APLD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Applied Digital Corporation do?Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions to high-performance...

Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence industries in North America. It operates through: Data Center Hosting Business, and HPC Hosting Business. The company offers infrastructure services to crypto mining customers; and GPU computing solutions for critical workloads related to AI, machine learning, and other HPC tasks. It also engages in the designing, constructing, and managing of data centers to support HPC applications. The company was formerly known as Applied Blockchain, Inc. and changed its name to Applied Digital Corporation in November 2022. Applied Digital Corporation has an lease agreement with CoreWeave for an additional 150MW at its Polaris Forge 1 Campus in Ellendale, North Dakota. Applied Digital Corporation is based in Dallas, Texas.

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