APLD is growing revenue at 139% year-over-year and has beaten earnings expectations in three consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise exceeding 100%, ranking it as the top growth performer among peers; however, free cash flow is deeply negative at 469% of revenue consumed, business quality is below minimum thresholds, 29% of the float is sold short, and a put/call ratio of 1.37 signals significant market skepticism—the investment case is a direct bet on whether the exceptional growth trajectory can eventually justify the cash consumption and silence the short thesis.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Leadership→Stable
- Severe Cash Burn Quality Floor Breach→Stable
- High Short Interest Market Skepticism→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Information Technology Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Applied Digital builds and operates data centers for crypto mining hosting and, increasingly, high-performance computing (HPC) hosting for AI/cloud customers, primarily through its Polaris Forge campus. In fiscal 2025 its Data Center Hosting segment drew 100% of... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Applied Digital Corporation
About Applied Digital Corporation
Applied Digital's Data Center Hosting segment generated 100% of its fiscal 2025 revenue from continuing operations from just four customers, with a single crypto-mining customer accounting for 93% of that revenue. The company's newer HPC Hosting segment, anchored by its Polaris Forge 1 campus, had signed two lease agreements for a combined 250 megawatts of capacity with a single customer as of the date of the filing, ahead of the first building becoming operational in calendar 2025.
Applied Digital earns revenue by leasing data center capacity and power infrastructure — first to cryptocurrency mining operators through its Data Center Hosting business, and increasingly to hyperscale and AI customers through its HPC Hosting business — rather than by owning compute workloads itself. Its dominant Data Center Hosting customer operates under a five-year contract with roughly 2.5 years remaining as of the filing, but the company notes that customer may unilaterally reduce or discontinue the contract subject to notice provisions, and the segment currently has only one active customer. The HPC Hosting segment is structured around long-term lease agreements tied to physical data center buildings such as Polaris Forge 1, generating no meaningful revenue until buildings become operational; the company separately disclosed a material weakness in its internal controls over the assessment and accounting for complex financial instruments, for which it has hired additional accounting personnel and engaged a third-party consultant.
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Applied Digital's structural risk is customer concentration compounding a business-model transition: as of the filing, the Data Center Hosting segment has been reduced to a single active customer after previously reporting four, and that lone crypto-mining customer's own operational or financial distress could eliminate the segment's revenue outright, since the company says it could not predict future demand from a customer facing risks in its own crypto mining business. The HPC Hosting segment, meant to diversify revenue toward AI and hyperscale demand, similarly depends on a single customer's two lease agreements for its entire disclosed 250 MW of contracted capacity, meaning both of Applied Digital's operating segments currently rest on one counterparty each.
See also: Technology · Information Technology Services
From Applied Digital Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — Applied Digital Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Hut 8, TeraWulf, Applied Digital: UBS Sees at Least 30% Upside — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Initiates Coverage On Applied Digital with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $38 — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS 10 Information Technology Stocks With Whale Alerts In Today’s Session — benzinga Sep 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Applied Digital Surges After Wells Fargo Names Stock a Top Pick With $50 Price Target — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Is Applied Digital Stock Surging Thursday? — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-26T13:06:57Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.25: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $24.41. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $57.58 (+119.3% upside). Prior stop was $24.41. Stop-loss: $24.41.
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.17% of cap).
Applied Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -104.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover APLD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $66.
What does Applied Digital Corporation do?Applied Digital builds and operates data centers for crypto mining hosting and, increasingly, high-performance...
Applied Digital builds and operates data centers for crypto mining hosting and, increasingly, high-performance computing (HPC) hosting for AI/cloud customers, primarily through its Polaris Forge campus. In fiscal 2025 its Data Center Hosting segment drew 100% of continuing-operations revenue from four customers, with one contributing 93%, while its new HPC Hosting segment has signed 250 MW of lease capacity with a single customer.