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Air Products and Chemicals, Inc (APD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $291.77 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (60.0%).

Air Products is an industrial gases company serving refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, and clean energy markets from operations in ~50 countries across five regional segments. Revenue is split roughly half on-site gases (15–20 year contracts) and half merchant/packaged... Read more

$291.77+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#25 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.42%
IncomeYield2.48%(5y avg 2.42%)Payout75.66%
Stop $280.94Target $295.07(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$327.86+12.4%21 analysts
$295.07our TP
$291.77price
$327.86mean
$275
$360

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $291.77 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (60.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Air Products and Chemicals, Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (60.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.8
P/E (Fwd)20.5
Mkt Cap$65.0B
EV/EBITDA21.9
Profit Mgn16.9%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend2.48%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. customers60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal year 2025, approximately 60% of our sales were derived from customers outside the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $289.63Resistance $307.96

Price Targets

$281
$295
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $291.77 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (60.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $280.94. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the APD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $295.07 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $280.94. Stop-loss: $280.94.

What are the risks of investing in APD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Is APD overvalued or undervalued?

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APD?

27 analysts cover APD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $328.

What does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc do?Air Products is an industrial gases company serving refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, and clean energy markets...

Air Products is an industrial gases company serving refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, and clean energy markets from operations in ~50 countries across five regional segments. Revenue is split roughly half on-site gases (15–20 year contracts) and half merchant/packaged gases; approximately 60% of fiscal 2025 sales were from customers outside the United States.

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